Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 5

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Café (Londrina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Londrina		Tombense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.73	3.1	4.4
	1.75	3.25	4.5	Watch
	1.78	3.4	5.05
	1.77	3.32	5.02	Watch
	1.75	3	4.5
	1.74	3.48	4.85	Watch
	1.75	3.25	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.85)	3.26 ↓ (3.32)	4.69 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Londrina
52.3%

Draw
28.1%

Tombense
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

27.5%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

26.8%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Londrina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Londrina - Tombense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Daniel (G) 5. Alison (C) 3. Caio Rodrigues 10. Gustavo Franca 7. Henrique 11. Iago Teles 2. Joao Vitor 6. Mauricio Junior 9. Pablo Ruan 8. Sousa 13. Yago Lincoln	1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 11. Anderson Ligeiro 7. Douglas Coutinho 5. Fabricio Dias 3. Ianson 10. Ingro 6. Julio Henrique 2. Leo Pereira 8. Lucas Mila 9. Rafael Silva 4. Roger Carvalho (C)
Substitutes
20. Caio Rafael 14. Cedric 19. Edson Carius 12. Elzo Neto (G) 15. Marco Antonio 18. Paredes M. 16. Rafael Soares 23. Robson Duarte 22. Thauan 21. Vitinho 17. Vitor J. 4. Wallace	22. Adson 15. Andre Cardoso 13. Fernando 17. Jefferson Renan 21. Joao Pedro 16. Joao Vitor 20. Pedro Oliveira 18. Rickson 14. Tarcisio 12. Vinicius Dias (G) 19. Ze Eduardo
Coaches
Claudinei Oliveira	Raul Cabral

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Mauricio Junior 🟨,
6', Lucas Mila 🟨,
45+4', Roger Carvalho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 1 - 0, Pablo Ruan ⚽,
59', Pablo Ruan 🟨,
59', Claudinei Oliveira 🟨,
60', Douglas Coutinho ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
60', Ingro ↓, Pedro Oliveira ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Rafael Silva (Pen),
71', Henrique ↓, Thauan ↑,
71', Gustavo Franca ↓, Vitinho ↑,
75', Pablo Ruan ↓, Edson Carius ↑,
78', 🟨,
79', 🟨,
86', Fabricio Dias ↓, Tarcisio ↑,
86', Julio Henrique ↓, Andre Cardoso ↑,
89', Joao Vitor ↓, Cedric ↑,
89', Mauricio Junior ↓, Rafael Soares ↑,
90+5', Pedro Oliveira 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Londrina won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Londrina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Londrina is a strong favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Londrina won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:9. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Londrina won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie C
05.05.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Londrina - Maringá	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Floresta - Londrina	0:2 ✺
14.04.25	Londrina - Ypiranga	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
18.03.25	Londrina - Operário Ferroviario	1:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TTWWL
- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.25	Tombense - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Ituano - Tombense	3:1 ✺
21.04.25	Tombense - Figueirense	3:2 ✺
13.04.25	Retrô Brasil - Tombense	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Operário Ferroviario - Tombense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
01.07.24	Londrina - Tombense	3:3
Brazilian Serie B
01.09.23	Londrina - Tombense	1:1
19.05.23	Tombense - Londrina	0:2
16.09.22	Tombense - Londrina	1:1
07.06.22	Londrina - Tombense	1:1
Brazilian Serie C
28.11.20	Londrina - Tombense	2:1
27.09.20	Tombense - Londrina	2:1

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