Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Segra Field (Leesburg, VA)

Referee: Flores G. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN+, NESN
Venezuela	Disney+


	Loudoun United		Indy Eleven

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	3.50	2.60
	2.2	3.55	2.72
	2.36	3.7	2.84
	2.29	3.64	2.79	Watch
	2.3	3.55	2.75
	2.25	4.03	2.8	Watch
	2.2	3.6	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.13)	3.65 ↓ (3.72)	2.74 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Loudoun United
41%

Draw
25.3%

Indy Eleven
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

25%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

24.6%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Loudoun United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Indy Eleven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loudoun United than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Indy Eleven than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Loudoun United - Indy Eleven Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Farr J. (G) 7. Niyongabire P. 2. Adnan N. 21. Akinyode B. 6. Awuah K. 8. Murphy J. (C) 28. Zouhir R. 22. Torres C. 23. Watts A. 11. Aboukoura A. 9. Davis III E.	1. Dick E. (G) 21. Rasheed M. 4. Herbert A. 36. Kibunguchy N. 29. Mitrano A. 5. O'Brien J. 6. Lindley C. 14. Quinn A. (C) 13. Hafferty J. 27. Rendon B. 90. Mesanvi L.
Substitutes
41. Bandre E. (G) 38. Barrus L. 17. Butts L. 18. Lomtadze G. 5. Mazzaferro S. 33. Piras L. 10. Santos P. 20. Young S.	39. Barry H. 23. Charles-Cook R. (G) 37. Craig P. 15. Henry-Scott M. 19. Kizza E. 22. Omar M. 20. Sing D.
Coaches
Limbrick A.	McAuley S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Davis III E. 🟨,
39', Rendon B. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Rendon B. ⚽, O'Brien J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Quinn A. ↓, Omar M. ↑,
58', Mesanvi L. 🟨,
64', O'Brien J. ↓, Henry-Scott M. ↑,
69', Zouhir R. ↓, Butts L. ↑,
73', Torres C. ↓, Lomtadze G. ↑,
75', Omar M. 🟨,
77', Rendon B. ↓, Kizza E. ↑,
77', Lindley C. ↓, Craig P. ↑,
80', Niyongabire P. ↓, Santos P. ↑,
80', Murphy J. ↓, Young S. ↑,
85', Butts L. 🟨,
90+1', Santos P. 🟨,
90+2', Mesanvi L. ↓, Barry H. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, Farr J. ⚽, Lomtadze G. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Loudoun won 2.

Neither team has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.

Loudoun could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Loudoun has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Loudoun has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:16 (averaging 1.2:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Loudoun against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 10:8 goals (averaging 1.7:1.3 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Loudoun United - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 43.63%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Loudoun United
USL Championship
25.09.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Loudoun United	1:4 ✺
19.09.26	Louisville City - Loudoun United	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Loudoun United	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Loudoun United - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	4:5 ✺
29.08.26	El Paso Locomotive - Loudoun United	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLLL
- Indy Eleven
USL Championship
30.09.26	Rhode Island - Indy Eleven	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Indy Eleven - Miami	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Indy Eleven - Oakland Roots	0:1 ✺
15.09.26	Indy Eleven - Brooklyn	4:0 ✺
11.09.26	New Mexico United - Indy Eleven	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
25.07.26	Indy Eleven - Loudoun United	0:1
18.10.25	Indy Eleven - Loudoun United	2:1
16.08.25	Loudoun United - Indy Eleven	3:2
08.10.24	Loudoun United - Indy Eleven	0:1
13.07.24	Indy Eleven - Loudoun United	1:1
26.08.23	Indy Eleven - Loudoun United	2:1
06.05.23	Loudoun United - Indy Eleven	1:2

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