Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 38

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Porta Elisa (Lucca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Lucchese		Sassari Torres

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	3.6
	1.96	3.35	3.65
	1.91	3.3	4.04
	2.1	3.22	3.6	Watch
	1.91	3.2	3.8
	2.02	3.24	3.39	Watch
	2	3.35	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.62)	3.28 ↑ (3.09)	3.66 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lucchese
46.8%

Draw
28%

Sassari Torres
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

29.5%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

29.8%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucchese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lucchese's performance.

Sassari Torres has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sassari Torres might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lucchese than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lucchese that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sassari Torres than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sassari Torres could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Lucchese - Sassari Torres Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Lucchese will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Torres will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lucchese (votes: 1 - 50%). Torres (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Lucchese (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lucchese (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Torres (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
59. Melgrati R. (G) 27. Gucher R. 5. Benedetti S. 3. Rizzo N. 30. Gemignani A. 21. Visconti E. 24. Welbeck N. 29. Antoni E. 70. Saporiti E. 9. Magnaghi S. 10. Selvini A.	1. Petriccione D. (G) 14. Idda R. 30. Fabriani C. 3. Mercadante M. 27. Zambataro E. 8. Masala A. (C) 18. Casini R. 7. Liviero M. 11. Diakite A. 20. Fischnaller M. 17. Zamparo L.
Substitutes
12. Allegrucci L. (G) 20. Badje I. 26. Cartano R. 1. Coletta J. (G) 2. da Silva J. 19. Fedato F. 96. Galli G. 6. Gasbarro A. 80. Gheza F. 4. Macchi F. 71. Moschella M. 15. Salomaa H. 8. Tumbarello G.	4. Brentan M. 80. Carboni M. 5. Dametto P. 21. Fois F. 6. Frau A. 24. Giorico D. 19. Guiebre A. 10. Mastinu G. 32. Nanni N. 9. Scotto L. 70. Varela Djamanca M. 12. Zaccagno A. (G) 77. Zecca G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
11', 1 - 0, Selvini A. ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Fischnaller M. ⚽,
28', 1 - 2, Fischnaller M. ⚽,
40', 2 - 2, Saporiti E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 3 - 2, Saporiti E. ⚽,
59', Saporiti E. 🟨,
66', Fischnaller M. ↓, Varela Djamanca M. ↑,
66', Zamparo L. ↓, Carboni M. ↑,
67', Magnaghi S. ↓, Galli G. ↑,
67', Saporiti E. ↓, Fedato F. ↑,
76', Selvini A. ↓, Badje I. ↑,
81', Liviero M. ↓, Guiebre A. ↑,
81', Diakite A. ↓, Nanni N. ↑,
85', Welbeck N. ↓, Cartano R. ↑,
85', Rizzo N. ↓, Gasbarro A. ↑,
87', Casini R. ↓, Fois F. ↑,
90+2', Mercadante M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals)).

Lucchese is Serie C ~ Play Out

Torres is Qualified for Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals)

Recent matches Lucchese is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Torres is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lucchese will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Lucchese: Sabbione A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lucchese: Catanese G. (Inactive)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lucchese won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:5 (average 0.2:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Lucchese won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2 (average 0:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Sassari Torres - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 35.62%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie C Group B
23.04.25	Arezzo - Lucchese	4:1 ✺
13.04.25	Lucchese - Vis Pesaro	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Pontedera - Lucchese	4:1 ✺
30.03.25	Lucchese - Ternana	4:1 ✺
22.03.25	Legnago Salus - Lucchese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWLWT
- Sassari Torres 1903
Italian Serie C Group B
23.04.25	Sassari Torres - Carpi	4:2 ✺
13.04.25	Ascoli - Sassari Torres	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	Sassari Torres - SPAL	0:0 ✺
31.03.25	Virtus Entella - Sassari Torres	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	Sassari Torres - Rimini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
15.12.24	Sassari Torres - Lucchese	0:0
14.02.24	Lucchese - Sassari Torres	0:2
08.10.23	Sassari Torres - Lucchese	2:0
04.02.23	Sassari Torres - Lucchese	1:1
09.10.22	Lucchese - Sassari Torres	0:0

Upcoming Matches