Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 37

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Citta di Arezzo (Arezzo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 259


	Arezzo		Lucchese

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	3.75
	1.85	3.5	3.9
	1.88	3.71	3.98
	1.84	3.67	4.02	Watch
	1.85	3.2	4
	1.74	3.42	4.32	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.82)	3.47 ↑ (3.25)	3.98 ↓ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arezzo
50.3%

Draw
26.5%

Lucchese
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

28.3%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

31.1%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arezzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Lucchese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arezzo than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arezzo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lucchese than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Arezzo - Lucchese Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Arezzo (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Lucchese (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trombini L. (G) 19. Chiosa M. 33. Dezi J. 16. Eklu S. M. 5. Gilli M. 7. Guccione F. 10. Pattarello E. 11. Ravasio M. 6. Renzi A. 23. Righetti S. 21. Tavernelli C.	59. Melgrati R. (G) 29. Antoni E. 5. Benedetti S. 96. Galli G. 6. Gasbarro A. 30. Gemignani A. 9. Magnaghi S. 70. Saporiti E. 10. Selvini A. 21. Visconti E. 24. Welbeck N.
Substitutes
22. Borra D. (G) 24. Chierico L. 18. Damiani M. 14. Fiore S. 12. Galli A. (G) 15. Gigli N. 17. Lazzarini M. 2. Montini A. 9. Ogunseye R. 20. Santoro S. 8. Settembrini A.	12. Allegrucci L. (G) 20. Badje I. 26. Cartano R. 1. Coletta J. (G) 2. da Silva J. 19. Fedato F. 80. Gheza F. 71. Moschella M. 15. Salomaa H. 8. Tumbarello G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Magnaghi S. ⚽,
30', Welbeck N. 🟨,
38', Eklu S. M. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Eklu S. M. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
67', 2 - 1, Pattarello E. ⚽,
69', Magnaghi S. ↓, Badje I. ↑,
70', 3 - 1, Pattarello E. ⚽,
70', Pattarello E. 🟨,
76', Dezi J. ↓, Settembrini A. ↑,
76', Eklu S. M. ↓, Chierico L. ↑,
76', 4 - 1, Tavernelli C. ⚽,
82', Selvini A. ↓, Fedato F. ↑,
82', Welbeck N. ↓, Cartano R. ↑,
83', Pattarello E. ↓, Fiore S. ↑,
83', Tavernelli C. ↓, Capello A. ↑,
88', Badje I. 🟨,
89', Ravasio M. ↓, Ogunseye R. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arezzo won 1.

Recent matches Arezzo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lucchese is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lucchese could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arezzo is a favorite.

There will not play in Lucchese: Gucher R. (Yellow Cards) Tumbarello G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lucchese: Catanese G. (Inactive)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Arezzo won 2 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14:17 (average 0.9:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Arezzo won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:11 (average 0.9:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Arezzo
Italian Serie C Group B
13.04.25	Virtus Entella - Arezzo	2:1 ✺
09.04.25	Pescara - Arezzo	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Arezzo - Perugia	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Arezzo - Milan Futuro	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Ascoli - Arezzo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWWL
- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie C Group B
13.04.25	Lucchese - Vis Pesaro	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Pontedera - Lucchese	4:1 ✺
30.03.25	Lucchese - Ternana	4:1 ✺
22.03.25	Legnago Salus - Lucchese	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Lucchese - Campobasso	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
09.12.24	Lucchese - Arezzo	0:1
08.04.24	Lucchese - Arezzo	1:1
02.12.23	Arezzo - Lucchese	1:1
Coppa Italia Serie C
03.10.23	Arezzo - Lucchese	3:4
Italian Serie C Group A
30.12.18	Arezzo - Lucchese	0:0
16.09.18	Lucchese - Arezzo	0:1
Coppa Italia Serie C
12.08.18	Lucchese - Arezzo	2:1 penalties

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