Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 35

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Ettore Mannucci (Pontedera)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255


	Pontedera		Lucchese

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.7	4.4
	1.65	3.8	4.7
	1.64	3.91	4.97	Watch
	1.67	3.4	4.75
	1.83	3.5	3.75	Watch
	1.65	3.8	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (2.24)	3.69 ↑ (3.49)	4.55 ↑ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontedera
54.9%

Draw
24.9%

Lucchese
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

26.2%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

26.8%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontedera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pontedera's performance.

Lucchese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lucchese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pontedera that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucchese than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lucchese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pontedera - Lucchese Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Lucchese (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lucchese (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Tantalocchi E. (G) 21. Perretta G. 29. Moretti A. 19. Espeche M. 7. Migliardi F. 18. Guidi M. 27. Ladinetti R. 17. Vitali P. 13. Scaccabarozzi J. 15. Lipari M. 9. Italeng J.	1. Coletta J. (G) 27. Gucher R. 5. Benedetti S. 3. Rizzo N. 21. Visconti E. 24. Welbeck N. 23. Ballarini M. 29. Antoni E. 10. Selvini A. 9. Magnaghi S. 19. Fedato F.
Substitutes
1. Calvani S. (G) 24. Coviello A. 11. Gaddini M. 3. Maggini F. 28. Maiello F. 5. Martinelli R. 25. Pietra N. 16. Sala M. 20. Sarpa A. 8. van Ransbeeck K. 37. Vanzini M. (G) 30. Vivoli N. (G)	12. Allegrucci L. (G) 20. Badje I. 26. Cartano R. 2. da Silva J. 96. Galli G. 6. Gasbarro A. 30. Gemignani A. 80. Gheza F. 71. Moschella M. 28. Plutnik A. 15. Salomaa H. 70. Saporiti E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Lipari M. ⚽,
14', 2 - 0, Italeng J. ⚽,
18', Rizzo N. 🟨,
43', 3 - 0, Italeng J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Welbeck N. ↓, Galli G. ↑,
46', Benedetti S. ↓, Gemignani A. ↑,
54', 4 - 0, Italeng J. ⚽,
65', Magnaghi S. ↓, Saporiti E. ↑,
65', Fedato F. ↓, Badje I. ↑,
66', Lipari M. ↓, Sala M. ↑,
66', Vitali P. ↓, Gaddini M. ↑,
67', Ladinetti R. ↓, van Ransbeeck K. ↑,
72', Guidi M. ↓, Pietra N. ↑,
78', Perretta G. ↓, Sarpa A. ↑,
83', 4 - 1, Selvini A. ⚽,
86', Tantalocchi E. 🟨,
89', Pietra N. 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pontedera won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Lucchese could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Pontedera is a favorite.

There will not play in Lucchese: Catanese G. (Inactive) Gemignani A. (Inactive) Saporiti E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Pontedera: Cerretti C. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lucchese: Galli G. (Inactive) Tumbarello G. (Inactive)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Pontedera won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 28:27 (average 1.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Pontedera won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18:16 (average 1.8:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pontedera
Italian Serie C Group B
28.03.25	Pianese - Pontedera	0:3 ✺
22.03.25	Pontedera - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Milan Futuro - Pontedera	1:1 ✺
11.03.25	Pontedera - Pescara	0:3 ✺
07.03.25	Virtus Entella - Pontedera	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTTLL
- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie C Group B
30.03.25	Lucchese - Ternana	4:1 ✺
22.03.25	Legnago Salus - Lucchese	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Lucchese - Campobasso	2:0 ✺
11.03.25	Lucchese - Virtus Entella	2:2 ✺
07.03.25	Pescara - Lucchese	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
25.11.24	Lucchese - Pontedera	2:1
06.03.24	Pontedera - Lucchese	2:2
29.10.23	Lucchese - Pontedera	1:2
15.01.23	Pontedera - Lucchese	0:0
14.09.22	Lucchese - Pontedera	1:1
20.02.22	Lucchese - Pontedera	1:2
16.10.21	Pontedera - Lucchese	2:3

Pontedera - Lucchese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide