Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 5 January 2026, Monday


	Lugano		Köln

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.3	3.55	1.95	Watch
	3.28	4.13	1.91	Watch
	3.4	3.5	1.85
	3.77	3.89	1.83	Watch
	3.5	3.6	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↓ (4.52)	3.73 ↓ (4.02)	1.91 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
26.8%

Draw
24.8%

Köln
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

22.8%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

18.7%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.

Köln has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Köln might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.6%	8.7%	8.7%

Lugano - Köln Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Lugano will win (votes: 19 - 82.6%). Köln will win (votes: 2 - 8.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugano: 67.1% – 98.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Lugano (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Lugano (3.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lugano will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 15 - 93.8%). Köln (votes: 1 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	1. Schwabe M. (G)
	30. Bulter M.
	17. Castro-Montes A.
	3. Heintz D.
	8. Huseinbasic D.
	18. Johannesson I.
	16. Kaminski J.
	6. Martel E.
	40. Schenten F.
	28. Sebulonsen S.
	29. Thielmann J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Bulter M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 1 - 1, Behrens K. ⚽,
80', 1 - 2, Maina L. ⚽,

Preview

Neutral location.

Lugano is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Köln is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Köln is a strong favorite.

We predict that Lugano will win today's game, with odds of 4.13.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
21.12.25	Lugano - Young Boys	3:0 ✺
17.12.25	Zürich - Lugano	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Lugano - Servette	4:2 ✺
07.12.25	Lausanne-Sport - Lugano	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Lugano - Sion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWTT
- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Köln - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Köln - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Werder Bremen - Köln	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Köln - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTTL

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