Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 14

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	18:30	Tring Sport 2
Angola	18:30	Z Sports 2
Argentina	14:30	Disney+
Australia	04:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	18:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Belgium	18:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	14:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	19:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Cameroon	18:30	CRTV Sports
Canada	12:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	01:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	18:30	SportKlub 3
Czech Republic	18:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	18:30	See, Viaplay
Finland	19:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	18:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Georgia	21:30	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	18:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	19:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	01:30	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	18:30	Arena 4, Match 4
Iceland	17:30	Viaplay
Ireland	17:30	NOW
Israel	19:30	Sport 3
Italy	18:30	Sky Sport Uno
Japan	02:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	00:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	18:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	11:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	01:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	18:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	06:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	18:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	22:30	Tapmad
Peru	12:30	Disney+
Philippines	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	18:30	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	17:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	19:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	20:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	20:30	Shahid
Serbia	18:30	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	01:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	18:30	Voyo
Slovenia	18:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	02:30	Coupang Play
Spain	18:30	DAZN Espana, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	18:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	18:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Thailand	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	20:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	19:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	17:30	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go
Uruguay	14:30	Disney+
Usa	12:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	13:30	Disney+
Vietnam	00:30	TV 360
International	17:30	Onefootball


	Bayer Leverkusen		Köln

	1	X	2
	1.75	4.1	4	Watch
	1.78	4.3	3.95	Watch
	1.83	4.25	4.05
	1.74	4.3	4.17	Watch
	1.75	3.9	3.9
	1.77	4.24	4.35	Watch
	1.75	4.2	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.53)	4.18 ↓ (4.67)	4.09 ↓ (5.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
53.9%

Draw
22.8%

Köln
23.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62%

20.3%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.6%

19.8%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bayer Leverkusen's form might have worsened.

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Köln's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Köln, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.1%	10.5%	18.4%

Bayer Leverkusen - Köln Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 27 - 73%). Köln will win (votes: 7 - 18.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 8.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 58.7% – 87.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 2 - 50%). Köln (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Bayer (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 3 - 60%). Köln (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 13. Arthur 30. Maza I. 24. Garcia A. 19. Poku E. 7. Hofmann J. 10. Tillman M. 35. Kofane C. M.	1. Schwabe M. (C) 28. Sebulonsen S. 6. Martel E. 33. van den Berg R. 29. Thielmann J. 8. Huseinbasic D. 5. Krauss T. 16. Kaminski J. 7. Waldschmidt L. 30. Bulter M. 13. El Mala S.
Substitutes
5. Bade L. 44. Belocian J. 17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 6. Fernandez E. 18. Sarco A. 16. Tape A. 23. Tella N. 11. Terrier M.	9. Ache R. 17. Castro-Montes A. 18. Johannesson I. 11. Kainz F. 32. Lund K. 37. Maina L. 36. Neumann C. 39. Ozkacar C. 20. Zieler R. (G)
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Kwasniok L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Martel E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Waldschmidt L. ↓, Maina L. ↑,
46', Huseinbasic D. ↓, Ozkacar C. ↑,
46', Bulter M. ↓, Ache R. ↑,
51', Arthur 🟨,
62', Poku E. ↓, Tella N. ↑,
62', Hofmann J. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Terrier M. ⚽, Arthur (A),
72', 2 - 0, Andrich R. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
73', El Mala S. ↓, Lund K. ↑,
74', Quansah J. 🟨,
77', Garcia A. ↓, Bade L. ↑,
77', Kofane C. M. ↓, Sarco A. ↑,
80', Martel E. ↓, Johannesson I. ↑,
86', Tillman M. ↓, Belocian J. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bayer is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Fernandez E. (Knee Injury) Palacios E. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Köln: Heintz D. (Injury) Hubers T. (Knee Injury) Kilian L. (Knee Injury) Schmied J. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Lucas (Muscle Injury) Schick P. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 39:21. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 2.3:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Manchester City - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.3 TLWLW
- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Köln - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Werder Bremen - Köln	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Köln - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:4 ✺
08.11.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Köln	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Köln - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
05.02.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	3:2 ET
German Bundesliga
03.03.24	Köln - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2
08.10.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	3:0
05.05.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	1:2
09.11.22	Köln - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2
13.03.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	0:1
24.10.21	Köln - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2

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