Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 15 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Bengoetxea R. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, RSI La 2


	Lugano		Partizan

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	5.75	Watch
	1.55	4.5	5.25
	1.52	4.5	5.5
	1.48	4.65	5.93
	1.48	4.7	5.62
	1.44	4.2	5.5
	1.5	4.65	5.9
	1.52	4.5	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.73)	4.5 ↑ (3.79)	5.62 ↑ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
62.5%

Draw
20.8%

Partizan
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

24.7%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

23.9%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.

Partizan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Partizan than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.1%	3.4%	4.5%

Lugano - Partizan Predictions

Users Predictions: Lugano will win (81 of 87 users predict this - 93.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.77% – 98.43%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saipi A. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 5. Hajdari A. 23. Valenzuela M. 20. Doumbia O. (C) 8. Grgic A. 11. Steffen R. 25. Bislimi U. 27. Dos Santos D. 31. Aliseda I.	1. Jovanovic A. (G) 25. De Medina N. 6. Markovic S. (C) 18. Mujakic N. 4. Jurcevic M. 33. Arriaga K. 77. Goh Young-Jun 29. Zahid G. 7. Severina X. 15. Kalulu A. 39. Ibrahim Z.
Substitutes
29. Belhadj M. 2. Brault-Guillard Z. 21. Cimignani Y. 22. El Wafi A. 7. Macek R. 18. Mahou H. 17. Mai L. 26. Marques M. 99. Mina D. (G) 58. Osigwe S. (G) 93. Przybylko K. 9. Vladi S.	5. Antic N. 26. Filipovic A. 20. Grimaldo J. 9. Jovanovic D. 50. Lazarevic M. 10. Natcho B. 23. Nikolic N. 16. Owusu L. 11. Saldanha 19. Scekic A. 85. Stevanovic N. (G) 43. Trifunovic N.
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Stanojevic A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Arriaga K. 🟨,
33', Ibrahim Z. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Zahid G. ⚽, Severina X. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Goh Young-Jun ↓, Saldanha ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Steffen R. ⚽, Bislimi U. (A),
49', Hajdari A. 🟨,
54', Dos Santos D. ↓, Vladi S. ↑,
63', Grgic A. ↓, Belhadj M. ↑,
64', Aliseda I. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
64', Ibrahim Z. ↓, Grimaldo J. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Markovic S. ⚽, Zahid G. (A),
70', Mujakic N. 🟨,
88', Hajdari A. 🟨,
88', Bislimi U. ↓, Mai L. ↑,
89', Zahid G. ↓, Owusu L. ↑,
89', Severina X. ↓, Trifunovic N. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
105', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
111', 2 - 2, Mahou H. ⚽,
112', Belhadj M. 🟨,
113', Arriaga K. ↓, Natcho B. ↑,
115', Steffen R. 🟨,
117', Mahou H. ↓, Marques M. ↑,
117', Steffen R. ↓, Brault-Guillard Z. ↑,
120+3', Doumbia O. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stockhorn Arena. 1st leg result: 1-0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Lugano is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Lugano won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
11.08.24	Lugano - Luzern	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
08.08.24	Partizan - Lugano	0:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
03.08.24	Lugano - Servette	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.07.24	Fenerbahçe - Lugano	2:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
27.07.24	Basel - Lugano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWWLW
- FK Partizan
Serbian Superliga
11.08.24	IMT Novi Beograd - Partizan	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
08.08.24	Partizan - Lugano	0:1 ✺
Serbian Superliga
04.08.24	Partizan - Železničar Pančevo	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
31.07.24	Partizan - Dynamo Kyiv	0:3 ✺
Serbian Superliga
27.07.24	Jedinstvo Ub - Partizan	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
08.08.24	Partizan - Lugano	0:1

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