Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 35

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Barca TV, FEF TV


	Lugo		Barcelona B

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	3.5
	2.1	3.25	2.95
	2.02	3.4	3.45
	2.02	3.72	3.44
	1.95	3.56	3.39	Watch
	2.03	3.33	3.64
	2.02	3.4	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.99)	3.41 ↑ (3.29)	3.4 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
45.8%

Draw
27.1%

Barcelona B
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

27.9%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

28.2%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Barcelona B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona B than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Lugo - Barcelona B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lavin M. (G) 2. Lizancos A. 23. Rodriguez J. 4. Ruiz E. (C) 3. Zoilo A. 18. Gonzalez J. 8. Gonzalez Y. 14. Vidal D. 21. Ceberio J. 10. Cabo J. 7. Hernandez R.	1. Astralaga A. (G) 2. Trilli 23. Olmedo A. 14. Cortes A. 37. Torrents J. 45. Virgili J. 16. Fernandez T. 8. Garrido A. (C) 20. Fernandez G. 19. Dacosta R. 24. Bikoue
Substitutes
5. Bernardo 13. Cacharron P. (G) 24. Martinez R. 9. Mendoza B. 6. Nicholas N. 17. Ochoa M. 33. Pereira P. 15. Reniero N. 29. Rubal P. 20. Sanchez M. 22. Vaquero	27. Cuenca A. 21. Darvich N. 34. Espart X. 32. Farre L. 10. Godoy A. 17. Lopez R. 25. Oduro D. 41. Yaakobishvili A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Bikoue ⚽,
32', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
40', Trilli 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Trilli ↓, Farre L. ↑,
52', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
57', Gonzalez J. ↓, Reniero N. ↑,
57', Ceberio J. ↓, Mendoza B. ↑,
58', Vidal D. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
63', Fernandez G. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
65', 🟨,
65', Reniero N. 🟨,
66', 0 - 2, Virgili J. ⚽,
69', Reniero N. 🟥,
69', 🟨,
75', 0 - 3, Virgili J. ⚽,
78', Virgili J. ↓, Darvich N. ↑,
78', Garrido A. ↓, Espart X. ↑,
80', Rodriguez J. ↓, Sanchez M. ↑,
80', Hernandez R. ↓, Ochoa M. ↑,
80', Martinez R. 🟨,
84', Torrents J. ↓, Cuenca A. ↑,
86', 0 - 4, Bikoue ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 1.

Lugo has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Barcelona B has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lugo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lugo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.04.25	Arenteiro - Lugo	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Lugo - Real Sociedad B	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Real Unión de Irun - Lugo	3:0 ✺
06.04.25	Lugo - Gimnástica Segoviana	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Lugo - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL
- FC Barcelona B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.04.25	Barcelona B - Amorebieta	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Real Unión de Irun - Barcelona B	1:3 ✺
13.04.25	Barcelona B - Sestao	2:0 ✺
04.04.25	Celta de Vigo B - Barcelona B	3:1 ✺
29.03.25	Barcelona B - Leonesa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.11.24	Barcelona B - Lugo	1:1
21.04.24	Barcelona B - Lugo	1:0
10.12.23	Lugo - Barcelona B	1:1
Spanish LaLiga2
18.02.18	Lugo - Barcelona B	1:2
25.09.17	Barcelona B - Lugo	1:2
07.03.15	Lugo - Barcelona B	3:2
04.10.14	Barcelona B - Lugo	0:1

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