Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 33

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV, TVG 2


	Lugo		Real Sociedad B

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.2
	2.15	2.9	3.1
	2.23	3	3.35
	2.17	3.1	3.44
	2.15	3.12	3.31	Watch
	2.17	3.04	3.42
	2.02	2.9	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.58)	3.01 ↓ (3.08)	3.34 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
42.4%

Draw
30.3%

Real Sociedad B
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

29.8%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

28.7%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugo's performance.

Real Sociedad B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Sociedad B might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Sociedad B than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Sociedad B could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lugo - Real Sociedad B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lavin M. (G) 2. Lizancos A. 23. Rodriguez J. 4. Ruiz E. (C) 3. Zoilo A. 21. Ceberio J. 14. Vidal D. 24. Martinez R. 11. Perero G. 7. Hernandez R. 10. Cabo J.	1. Fraga A. (G) 22. Ruperez I. 15. Rodriguez P. 6. Lebarbier A. 3. Balda J. 28. Carbonell T. 8. Rodriguez M. 18. Garcia E. 40. Astiazaran L. 19. Marchal A. 35. Carrera G.
Substitutes
19. Afriyie J. 5. Bernardo 13. Cacharron P. (G) 18. Gonzalez J. 9. Mendoza B. 17. Ochoa M. 33. Pereira P. 15. Reniero N. 29. Rubal P. 20. Sanchez M. 22. Vaquero	. Arana E. (G) 5. Astigarraga E. 16. Gibelalde M. 37. Gorosabel G. 21. Merino J. 17. Ramirez D. 38. Ropero I. . Soroeta J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Hernandez R. ⚽,
42', Zoilo A. 🟨,
45', Perero G. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Balda J. 🟨,
59', 🟨,
62', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
64', Vidal D. 🟨,
77', Ceberio J. ↓, Reniero N. ↑,
77', Cabo J. ↓, Ochoa M. ↑,
80', Lizancos A. 🟨,
85', Zoilo A. ↓, Sanchez M. ↑,
85', Martinez R. ↓, Pereira P. ↑,
90', 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Lugo will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 0.6:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0 (average 0.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.04.25	Real Unión de Irun - Lugo	3:0 ✺
06.04.25	Lugo - Gimnástica Segoviana	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Lugo - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
23.03.25	Ponferradina - Lugo	0:1 ✺
19.03.25	Celta de Vigo B - Lugo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 LLLWW
- Real Sociedad B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.04.25	Real Sociedad B - FC Andorra	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Amorebieta - Real Sociedad B	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Real Sociedad B - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
23.03.25	Ourense CF - Real Sociedad B	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Real Sociedad B - Zamora	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.09.24	Real Sociedad B - Lugo	1:0
27.01.24	Lugo - Real Sociedad B	1:0
23.09.23	Real Sociedad B - Lugo	1:1
Spanish LaLiga2
05.02.22	Real Sociedad B - Lugo	1:1
21.08.21	Lugo - Real Sociedad B	0:0

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