Match Info

Date: 21 March 2021, Sunday


	Lugo		Castellón

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	3.8	Watch
	2.2	3	3.5
	2.2	3.05	3.5	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.7
	2.22	3.06	3.99
	2.15	3	3.7	Watch
	2.24	3	3.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.19)	3 ↑ (2.99)	3.7 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
43.2%

Draw
31.4%

Castellón
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

31.4%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

21.2%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Castellón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castellón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lugo - Castellón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Lugo has a small chance of relegated (7%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Castellón has a chance of relegated (42%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Lugo is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Castellón is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lugo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Lugo will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
13.03.21	Girona - Lugo	1:1 ✺
08.03.21	Lugo - Fuenlabrada	0:0 ✺
27.02.21	Almería - Lugo	4:1 ✺
21.02.21	Lugo - UD Logroñés	1:1 ✺
15.02.21	Real Oviedo - Lugo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TTLTL
- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
13.03.21	Castellón - Sabadell	2:1 ✺
06.03.21	Leganés - Castellón	0:0 ✺
27.02.21	Castellón - Las Palmas	4:0 ✺
21.02.21	Girona - Castellón	2:1 ✺
15.02.21	Castellón - Fuenlabrada	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
17.10.20	Castellón - Lugo	0:1

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