Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 7

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	20:30	Footballclub


	Lugo		UD Logroñés

	1	X	2
	2.60	3.25	2.38
	2.55	3.20	2.40
	2.62	3.25	2.45
	2.83	3.40	2.50
	2.51	3.17	2.81	Watch
	2.70	3.10	2.45
	2.71	3.38	2.47
	2.60	3.25	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.42)	3.25 ↑ (3.12)	2.49 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
34.8%

Draw
28.3%

UD Logroñés
36.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.5%

29.1%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

28.2%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

UD Logroñés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UD Logroñés than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Lugo - UD Logroñés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez M. (C) 19. Lucero R. 18. Hermoso K. 5. Moreno P. 3. Haro P. 15. Parrilla P. 20. Ulloa A. 16. Palma A. 11. Dauda M. 17. Chiqui 9. Costa A.	13. Sobron F. (G) 14. Navarro D. 5. Alvarez A. 15. Pedreno M. 3. Camacho S. 8. Mari Sanchez M. (C) 17. Issman L. 21. Santana I. 23. Ramirez Carrasco M. A. 20. Morales A. 9. Rosas B.
Substitutes
21. Berzal G. 13. Candal J. (G) 25. Embadje F. (G) 14. Gallar A. 10. Godoy A. 7. Morchiladze T. 22. Munoz M. 23. Pascual H. 8. Perera A. 24. Perez S. 6. Presa K. 2. Sanchez Martinez A. N.	7. Amigo D. 19. Asenjo I. 18. Ba P. 11. Baselga M. 27. Brito P. 4. Cabetas E. 1. Konate T. (G) 10. Rivero Q. 2. Val J. 16. Zabala M.
Coaches
Borja Fernandez	Mendia U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Chiqui ⚽, Palma A. (A),
14', Hermoso K. 🟨,
19', Pedreno M. 🟥,
28', Ramirez Carrasco M. A. 🟨,
39', 2 - 0, Chiqui ⚽, Lucero R. (A),
44', Moreno P. 🟨,
45', 2 - 1, Morales A. ⚽,
45+2', Costa A. 🟥,
45+2', Alvarez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hermoso K. ↓, Pascual H. ↑,
59', Haro P. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
59', Dauda M. ↓, Godoy A. ↑,
63', Rosas B. ↓, Amigo D. ↑,
63', Ramirez Carrasco M. A. ↓, Baselga M. ↑,
69', 3 - 1, Godoy A. (Penalty Awarded),
70', Chiqui ↓, Morchiladze T. ↑,
70', Mari Sanchez M. ↓, Rivero Q. ↑,
70', Issman L. ↓, Zabala M. ↑,
74', Zabala M. 🟨,
77', Camacho S. ↓, Ba P. ↑,
80', Parrilla P. ↓, Presa K. ↑,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs and 1st in the Promotion - LaLiga2).

Both teams have recently enjoyed an outstanding winning streak.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Lugo has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:3 (averaging 2:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lugo against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lugo	9	7	1	1	16:8	8	22
2	UD Logrones	9	6	2	1	20:12	8	20

Last Results with these Odds

Lugo - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.54%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.10.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Lugo - Ferrol	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Zamora - Lugo	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Lugo - Coria	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Ponferradina - Lugo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WWWWT
- UD Logroñés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.10.26	UD Logroñés - Deportivo A Coruña B	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Mérida AD - UD Logroñés	3:5 ✺
18.09.26	UD Logroñés - Pontevedra	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	UD Ourense - UD Logroñés	0:3 ✺
06.09.26	Zamora - UD Logroñés	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
21.02.21	Lugo - UD Logroñés	1:1
24.10.20	UD Logroñés - Lugo	2:3

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