Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 38

Date: 25 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)


	Lugo		Sabadell

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.4	1.85
	3.7	3.25	1.85
	4	3.4	1.87
	3.85	3.75	1.89
	3.71	3.75	1.89
	3.74	3.38	1.94
	3.65	3.45	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.75 ↑ (2.91)	3.48 ↑ (3.25)	1.88 ↓ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
24.6%

Draw
26.4%

Sabadell
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

27.9%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

28.1%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugo's form might have worsened.

Sabadell has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sabadell's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sabadell than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sabadell, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Lugo - Sabadell Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Sabadell will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Tabuaco G. (G) 2. Martinez C. 5. Bernardo 14. Morgado C. 22. Lopez A. 15. Narro V. 9. Quintana Nacho 17. Merida F. 18. Jozabed 10. Aranda A. 23. Antonetti L.	13. Ortola A. (C) 11. Astals D. 6. Calavera J. 5. Resta P. 4. Pujol R. 12. Domenech M. 21. Maestre S. 8. Gualda A. 27. Saez M. 17. Kopotun V. 19. Garcia N.
Substitutes
11. Antonin 21. da Costa M. 1. Diaz Parcero L. (G) 19. Fuentes A. 27. Gonzalez J. 30. Lizancos A. 12. Louis-Jean J. 20. Ojeda T. 26. Roson D. 3. Vazquez J.	22. Abde 14. Baselga M. 30. Bonet N. 3. Fernandez J. 28. Fernandez P. 32. Font J. 1. Leal F. (G) 9. Martinez M. 31. Morcillo J. R. 23. Soto D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Aranda A. ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Kopotun V. ⚽,
45+3', Maestre S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
49', Martinez C. 🟨,
62', Merida F. ↓, da Costa M. ↑,
62', Narro V. ↓, Roson D. ↑,
63', Saez M. ↓, Soto D. ↑,
63', Garcia N. ↓, Abde ↑,
71', Antonetti L. ↓, Antonin ↑,
71', Martinez C. ↓, Lizancos A. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, da Costa M. ⚽,
79', Quintana Nacho ↓, Fuentes A. ↑,
80', 3 - 1, Antonin ⚽,
89', 3 - 2, Baselga M. ⚽,
90+4', 3 - 3, Abde ⚽,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Sabadell will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Lugo won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
18.05.24	SD Logroñés - Lugo	2:1 ✺
11.05.24	Lugo - Cornellà	3:1 ✺
05.05.24	Arenteiro - Lugo	1:3 ✺
27.04.24	Lugo - Rayo Majadahonda	3:1 ✺
21.04.24	Barcelona B - Lugo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWWWL
- Sabadell FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
18.05.24	Sabadell - Ponferradina	1:0 ✺
11.05.24	Tarazona - Sabadell	3:1 ✺
05.05.24	Sabadell - Gimnástic de Tarragona	0:0 ✺
27.04.24	Unionistas de Salamanca - Sabadell	4:0 ✺
20.04.24	Sabadell - Cornellà	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.11.23	Sabadell - Lugo	0:1
Spanish LaLiga2
28.03.21	Lugo - Sabadell	0:1
11.01.21	Sabadell - Lugo	1:1
11.04.15	Sabadell - Lugo	2:1
09.11.14	Lugo - Sabadell	2:1
30.03.14	Sabadell - Lugo	1:0
27.10.13	Lugo - Sabadell	1:0

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