Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 37

Date: 18 May 2024, Saturday


	SD Logroñés		Lugo

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.1
	3.3	3.1	2.05
	3.25	3.25	2.15
	3.29	3.38	2.25
	3.29	3.38	2.16
	3.32	3.17	2.15
	3.2	3.15	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↓ (3.77)	3.22 ↓ (3.27)	2.14 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Logroñés
28.3%

Draw
28.6%

Lugo
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

27.9%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

26.8%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Logroñés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Logroñés than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with SD Logroñés that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lugo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

SD Logroñés - Lugo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
z 13. Marti O. (G) 6. Elosegi G. 4. Murua J. 5. Aurtenetxe J. 18. Manny 8. Castellano J. 23. Miceli A. 22. Garrido D. 19. Conejero M. 17. Escobar J. 10. Ferni	13. Tabuaco G. (G) 12. Louis-Jean J. 4. Perez G. 14. Morgado C. 22. Lopez A. 15. Narro V. 18. Jozabed 20. Ojeda T. 9. Quintana Nacho 10. Aranda A. 23. Antonetti L.
Substitutes
14. Cova A. 15. Curro 16. Ezkurdia I. 1. Iruarrizaga A. (G) 27. Jaraiz A. 30. Lleyda D. (G) 9. Luzzi Rangel F. R. 20. Sabater D. 21. Salado A. 11. Schmerbock M. 2. Trespalacios A.	11. Antonin 5. Bernardo 21. da Costa M. 1. Diaz Parcero L. (G) 19. Fuentes A. 27. Gonzalez J. 30. Lizancos A. 2. Martinez C. 17. Merida F. 26. Roson D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
27', Perez G. 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Escobar J. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Quintana Nacho ⚽,
45', 🟨,
45', 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 1, Escobar J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Garrido D. ↓, Sabater D. ↑,
65', Ojeda T. ↓, da Costa M. ↑,
65', Narro V. ↓, Merida F. ↑,
67', Conejero M. 🟨,
67', Escobar J. 🟨,
70', Miceli A. ↓, Cova A. ↑,
70', Escobar J. ↓, Schmerbock M. ↑,
72', Quintana Nacho ↓, Antonin ↑,
77', Perez G. 🟨,
80', Louis-Jean J. ↓, Lizancos A. ↑,
80', Aranda A. ↓, Fuentes A. ↑,
82', Lizancos A. 🟨,
82', Castellano J. ↓, Curro ↑,
82', Ferni ↓, Luzzi Rangel F. R. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 9).

SD Logroñés is Relegated to

SD Logroñés is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Lugo is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lugo will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches SD Logroñés won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Logroñés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.05.24	Gimnástic de Tarragona - SD Logroñés	2:1 ✺
04.05.24	SD Logroñés - Fuenlabrada	0:0 ✺
27.04.24	Celta de Vigo B - SD Logroñés	4:0 ✺
21.04.24	SD Logroñés - Osasuna B	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Ponferradina - SD Logroñés	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTLTL
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.05.24	Lugo - Cornellà	3:1 ✺
05.05.24	Arenteiro - Lugo	1:3 ✺
27.04.24	Lugo - Rayo Majadahonda	3:1 ✺
21.04.24	Barcelona B - Lugo	1:0 ✺
14.04.24	Celta de Vigo B - Lugo	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
15.10.23	Lugo - SD Logroñés	2:1

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