Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 7

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Tullio Saleri (Lumezzane)

Referee: Palmieri A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256


	Lumezzane		Folgore Caratese

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	3.10	2.87
	2.32	3.05	2.70	Watch
	2.48	3.30	2.90
	2.37	3.26	2.79	Watch
	2.40	3.15	2.85
	2.29	3.18	2.80	Watch
	2.20	3.20	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.01)	3.18 ↓ (3.23)	2.84 ↓ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lumezzane
39.2%

Draw
28.7%

Folgore Caratese
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

28.5%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.3%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lumezzane has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lumezzane's form might have worsened.

Folgore Caratese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Folgore Caratese's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lumezzane than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lumezzane, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Folgore Caratese than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Folgore Caratese, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lumezzane - Folgore Caratese Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Folgore Caratese (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Andrenacci L. (G) 15. Ndiaye M. 21. Deratti J. 30. Boffelli A. 11. Ghillani A. 19. Rolando M. 4. Paghera F. (C) 44. Menegazzo L. 17. Mancini S. 32. Anatriello G. 9. Ebone T.	1. Salvalaggio D. (G) 4. Samotti N. 5. Marchetti S. 21. Gega E. 80. Di Dio F. 8. Castellano F. (C) 92. Tessiore A. 11. Balzano M. 99. D'Amico F. 61. Santarcangelo A. 9. Spalluto S.
Substitutes
42. Baroncioni D. 99. Belvedere F. 12. Busi M. 5. D'Agostino S. 50. D'Angelo G. 77. Diodato S. 1. Filigheddu S. (G) 6. Gauli N. 16. Ghidini C. 10. Monachello G. 90. Nwachukwu S. J. 27. Pavanati A. 72. Perina G. 7. Torregrossa E.	18. Ambrosini M. 43. Bassino A. 12. Castelnuovo M. (G) 19. Duca T. 29. Minerva F. 45. Nuzzi L. 10. Vacca A. 72. Vignoli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Di Dio F. ⚽, D'Amico F. (A),
10', 0 - 2, D'Amico F. ⚽,
15', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
32', D'Amico F. 🟨,
42', 1 - 2, Anatriello G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Paghera F. ↓, Pavanati A. ↑,
46', Menegazzo L. ↓, D'Agostino S. ↑,
62', Di Dio F. 🟨,
65', Ghillani A. ↓, Diodato S. ↑,
66', Tessiore A. ↓, Vignoli M. ↑,
70', Anatriello G. ↓, Torregrossa E. ↑,
73', Samotti N. ↓, Bassino A. ↑,
74', Santarcangelo A. ↓, Minerva F. ↑,
84', Gega E. 🟨,
85', Deratti J. ↓, Monachello G. ↑,
90', D'Amico F. ↓, Vacca A. ↑,
90+3', Bassino A. 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 10th in the Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 18th in the Serie C ~ Play Out).

Lumezzane has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Folgore Caratese has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Lumezzane has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:0 (averaging 3.5:0 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lumezzane against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:0 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Lumezzane	7	2	2	3	7:9	-2	8
17	Folgore Caratese	8	1	3	4	9:12	-3	6

Last Results with these Odds

Lumezzane - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 45.73%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lumezzane
Italian Serie C Group A
21.09.26	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Lumezzane	1:2 ✺
17.09.26	Lumezzane - Novara	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Lumezzane - Renate	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Cittadella - Lumezzane	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Lumezzane - Giana Erminio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTTLW
- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie C Group A
20.09.26	Folgore Caratese - Giana Erminio	1:1 ✺
17.09.26	Pergolettese - Folgore Caratese	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Folgore Caratese - Alcione	2:3 ✺
07.09.26	Pro Vercelli - Folgore Caratese	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Novara - Folgore Caratese	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
08.01.23	Lumezzane - Folgore Caratese	3:0
04.09.22	Folgore Caratese - Lumezzane	0:4

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