Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 6

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: AlbinoLeffe (Zanica)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256


	Folgore Caratese		Giana Erminio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.00	3.00
	2.2	3	3.2	Watch
	2.35	3.15	3.35
	2.23	3.07	3.19	Watch
	2.25	2.95	3.3
	2.26	3.25	3.14	Watch
	2.19	3.05	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 (2.23)	3.07 ↑ (2.8)	3.19 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Folgore Caratese
41.2%

Draw
30%

Giana Erminio
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

31.7%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

28.7%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Folgore Caratese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Giana Erminio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Folgore Caratese than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Folgore Caratese that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Giana Erminio than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Folgore Caratese - Giana Erminio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Castelnuovo M. (G) 4. Samotti N. 21. Gega E. 43. Bassino A. 24. Bellia E. 8. Castellano F. (C) 92. Tessiore A. 11. Balzano M. 99. D'Amico F. 61. Santarcangelo A. 9. Spalluto S.	22. Mazza A. (G) 19. Mora C. 60. Rovinelli E. 5. Ghezzi S. 28. Di Bitonto C. 21. Muhameti E. 25. Zanchetta M. 26. Ballabio M. (C) 24. Ruffini L. 10. Renda F. 8. Magazzu L.
Substitutes
18. Ambrosini M. 80. Di Dio F. 19. Duca T. 22. Facchini T. (G) 5. Marchetti S. 77. Mezsargs K. 28. Pedicillo L. 1. Salvalaggio D. (G) 10. Vacca A. 72. Vignoli M.	12. Azzolari E. (G) 11. Comelli S. 13. Golin M. 90. Leggio T. 27. Manzoni F. 14. Marotta M. 3. Nucifero T. 4. Piazza A. 7. Pinto D. 6. Saggionetto N. 29. Samele L. 23. Tornaghi P. 1. Zenti A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Spalluto S. ⚽,
45+3', Renda F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Di Bitonto C. ↓, Comelli S. ↑,
46', Bellia E. ↓, Duca T. ↑,
46', Mora C. ↓, Nucifero T. ↑,
49', D'Amico F. 🟨,
58', Renda F. ↓, Samele L. ↑,
58', Muhameti E. ↓, Pinto D. ↑,
62', Zanchetta M. 🟨,
68', D'Amico F. ↓, Mezsargs K. ↑,
68', Spalluto S. ↓, Pedicillo L. ↑,
72', Ghezzi S. ↓, Tornaghi P. ↑,
78', Pedicillo L. 🟨,
79', Tessiore A. ↓, Vignoli M. ↑,
81', 1 - 1, Ballabio M. ⚽, Pinto D. (A),
89', Santarcangelo A. ↓, Vacca A. ↑,
90+2', Samele L. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', Pedicillo L. 🟨,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 18th in the Serie C ~ Play Out and 20th in the Relegation).

Folgore Caratese is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Giana Erminio is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Folgore Caratese holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Folgore Caratese has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Folgore Caratese	8	1	3	4	9:12	-3	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	0	4	4	6:10	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Giana Erminio - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 28.59%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie C Group A
17.09.26	Pergolettese - Folgore Caratese	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Folgore Caratese - Alcione	2:3 ✺
07.09.26	Pro Vercelli - Folgore Caratese	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Novara - Folgore Caratese	2:2 ✺
24.08.26	Folgore Caratese - Dolomiti Bellunesi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLLTL
- AS Giana Erminio
Italian Serie C Group A
17.09.26	Giana Erminio - Trento	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Lecco - Giana Erminio	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Giana Erminio - Dolomiti Bellunesi	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Brescia - Giana Erminio	5:2 ✺
Italian Serie C Group A
30.08.26	Lumezzane - Giana Erminio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.26	Giana Erminio - Folgore Caratese	2:1 penalties

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