Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 5

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Tullio Saleri (Lumezzane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256, Sky Sport 257


	Lumezzane		Novara

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.70	2.95	2.40
	2.60	2.95	2.45	Watch
	3.04	3.15	2.51
	2.62	3.02	2.67	Watch
	2.90	3.05	2.45
	2.83	3.14	2.51	Watch
	2.75	3.05	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.5)	3.04 ↑ (3.03)	2.49 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lumezzane
33%

Draw
30.1%

Novara
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

29.6%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

28.6%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lumezzane has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Novara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lumezzane than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novara than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Lumezzane - Novara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Andrenacci L. (G) 15. Ndiaye M. 21. Deratti J. 30. Boffelli A. 17. Mancini S. 5. D'Agostino S. 19. Rolando M. (C) 44. Menegazzo L. 27. Pavanati A. 32. Anatriello G. 10. Monachello G.	33. Brancolini F. (G) 28. Cannavaro A. 58. Miceli M. 15. Khailoti O. 23. Zambataro E. 99. Basso G. 4. Ranieri R. (C) 19. Collodel R. 3. Lartey S. 9. Zuppel D. 11. Ledonne N.
Substitutes
42. Baroncioni D. 99. Belvedere F. 12. Busi M. 50. D'Angelo G. 77. Diodato S. 9. Ebone T. 1. Filigheddu S. (G) 6. Gauli N. 11. Ghillani A. 4. Paghera F. 72. Perina G.	22. Anfossi P. (G) 36. Arboscello R. 1. Boseggia E. (G) 31. Canneti J. 20. da Graca C. 71. D'Alessio L. 77. Donadio C. 7. Lanini E. 5. Lorenzini F. 14. Romano M. 70. Valdesi A.
Coaches
Sammarco P.	Birindelli A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Ranieri R. 🟨,
22', Ranieri R. ↓, Arboscello R. ↑,
40', Zuppel D. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Menegazzo L. ↓, Ghillani A. ↑,
54', Deratti J. 🟨,
59', D'Agostino S. 🟨,
59', Monachello G. ↓, Ebone T. ↑,
69', Pavanati A. ↓, Baroncioni D. ↑,
71', Ledonne N. ↓, Romano M. ↑,
71', Zuppel D. ↓, da Graca C. ↑,
77', Romano M. 🟨,
81', Anatriello G. ↓, Perina G. ↑,
81', Mancini S. ↓, Diodato S. ↑,
84', Zambataro E. ↓, Valdesi A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lumezzane won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Novara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Lumezzane won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lumezzane won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Lumezzane	8	3	2	3	10:11	-1	11
13	Novara	9	2	3	4	8:12	-4	9

Last Results with these Odds

Lumezzane - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 35.87%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Novara - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 34.57%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lumezzane
Italian Serie C Group A
13.09.26	Lumezzane - Renate	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Cittadella - Lumezzane	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Lumezzane - Giana Erminio	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Ospitaletto - Lumezzane	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
15.08.26	Lumezzane - Renate	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLWLL
- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
13.09.26	Novara - Pergolettese	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Renate - Novara	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
03.09.26	Novara - Livorno	0:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie C Group A
31.08.26	Novara - Folgore Caratese	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Juventus U23 - Novara	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
03.04.26	Novara - Lumezzane	1:3
29.11.25	Lumezzane - Novara	1:1
11.04.25	Lumezzane - Novara	2:2
01.12.24	Novara - Lumezzane	0:0
30.03.24	Novara - Lumezzane	1:1
26.11.23	Lumezzane - Novara	1:1
10.05.15	Lumezzane - Novara	0:1

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