Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 7

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitânia		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.25	3.75
	2.05	3.1	3.45
	2.07	3.14	3.79	Watch
	2.16	3.15	3.47	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.71)	3.15 ↓ (3.4)	3.58 ↓ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
45.2%

Draw
29.2%

Belenenses
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

26.8%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

25.7%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lusitânia's form might have worsened.

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Belenenses's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lusitânia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Belenenses, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lusitânia - Belenenses Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cioletti G. (G) 85. Castro D. 4. Collard D. 22. Faria B. 29. Cerveira T. 18. Pereira D. 6. Martins H. 80. Renato Luis 10. Ribeiro S. 77. Goba Zakpa (C) 12. Arsenio	22. Grilo D. (G) 16. Carvalho R. (C) 39. Pinto A. 6. Maria G. 2. Machado J. 20. Paulo D. 21. Morgado T. 27. Barros E. 15. Tavares J. 19. Triana C. 17. Horta Leitao D.
Substitutes
20. Faria R. 21. Joao Vasco 28. Mesquita T. 5. Oliveira J. 41. Ricardo M. (G) 3. Silverio 88. Teixeira M. 8. Tokinho Doria 14. Valente M.	26. Acosta Pinerez C. A. 3. Barbosa A. 5. Brasido D. 13. Cuca 29. Ekanga Ondoa H. O. 12. Gabriel Passos 10. Moninhas T. 24. Neto T. (G) 9. Pereira R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 1 - 0, Ribeiro S. ⚽,
65', Maria G. ↓, Pereira R. ↑,
65', Tavares J. ↓, Ekanga Ondoa H. O. ↑,
71', Arsenio ↓, Tokinho Doria ↑,
72', Pereira D. ↓, Valente M. ↑,
72', Ribeiro S. ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
75', Horta Leitao D. 🟨,
75', Carvalho R. ↓, Acosta Pinerez C. A. ↑,
81', Goba Zakpa ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
82', Tokinho Doria 🟨,
89', Morgado T. ↓, Gabriel Passos ↑,
89', Paulo D. ↓, Moninhas T. ↑,
90+1', Renato Luis ↓, Mesquita T. ↑,
90+7', Castro D. 🟨,

Preview

Lusitânia in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Belenenses is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Lusitânia is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.25	Atlético CP - Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
08.03.25	1 Dezembro - Lusitânia	1:3 ✺
01.03.25	Lusitânia - Amarante	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Fafe - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
15.02.25	Lusitânia - Varzim	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWWWW
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.25	Belenenses - Amarante	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Fafe - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
01.03.25	Belenenses - Varzim	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	1:3 ✺
15.02.25	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 TWTWL

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