Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 7

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)


	Lusitânia		Chaves

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.2
	2.05	3.10	3.10
	2.18	3.15	3.2
	2.22	3.23	3.59
	2.31	3.14	3.21	Watch
	2.14	3.15	3.5
	2.21	3.06	3.33	Watch
	2.16	3.15	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.77)	3.15 ↑ (2.82)	3.29 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
42.6%

Draw
29.3%

Chaves
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lusitânia's performance.

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lusitânia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Lusitânia - Chaves Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Lusitânia will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Chaves will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Lusitânia (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (2.00) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Araujo B. (G) 24. Ricardinho 4. Collard D. 22. Faria B. 52. Machado F. 12. Arsenio (C) 20. Paulo D. 27. Fabinho 19. Mandiang S. 17. Santos J. 21. Paulite	1. Valido J. (G) 23. Leo Alaba 33. Simoes T. 34. Alves R. (C) 14. Araujo N. 42. Tavares A. 19. Garcia G. 10. Rodrigues A. 30. Costinha 18. Tavares W. 7. Esajas R.
Substitutes
7. Borges M. 60. Danny 90. da Silva Moreira I. A. 42. Guilherme 80. Manel 6. Montez A. 16. Rocha L. 9. Silva J. 5. Silverio 1. Souza G. (G) 11. Tablante M. 88. Teixeira M.	27. Armando Jr 80. Fofana M. 99. GB 88. Gudzulic M. (G) 8. Joao Teixeira 5. Kiko 9. Marcos Andre 11. Pelagio P. 17. Roberto 29. Tounkara M. 13. Vazquez I. 16. Yearwood D.
Coaches
Silva R.	Martins V.

Preview

A clear contrast in standings as an upper-tier team meets a relegation-threatened side (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Liga Portugal and 16th in the Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Lusitânia is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Chaves have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Lusitânia could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Lusitânia has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:6 (averaging 1.3:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lusitânia against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lusitania FC	6	5	1	0	11:4	7	16
17	Chaves	6	1	1	4	5:13	-8	4

Last Results with these Odds

Chaves - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 33.13%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
14.09.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Lusitânia - AVS	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Académica Coimbra - Lusitânia	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Lusitânia - Torreense	2:2 ✺
16.08.26	Amarante - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 WWWTW
- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
04.10.26	Farense - Chaves	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.09.26	Chaves - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.26	Guarda FC - Chaves	2:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.26	Chaves - Feirense	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Felgueiras - Chaves	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
24.01.26	Chaves - Lusitânia	2:2
16.08.25	Lusitânia - Chaves	2:2
Taça de Portugal
20.10.24	Chaves - Lusitânia	2:0

Lusitânia - Chaves: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide