Match Info

Super League - Round 28

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Swissporarena (Luzern)

Referee: Fahndrich L. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1


	Luzern		Young Boys

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.75	3	Watch
	2.25	3.8	2.75
	2.18	3.7	2.82
	2.2	3.9	3.14
	2.24	3.91	2.86	Watch
	2.1	3.6	2.9
	2.11	3.77	3.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.67)	3.78 ↑ (3.7)	2.93 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luzern
43.3%

Draw
24.8%

Young Boys
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

25%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

24.4%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luzern has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luzern's performance.

Young Boys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Young Boys might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luzern than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luzern that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Young Boys than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Young Boys could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.1%	7.7%	9.2%

Luzern - Young Boys Predictions

Users Predictions: 64 users predict this event. Luzern will win (votes: 54 - 84.4%). Young Boys will win (votes: 5 - 7.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 7.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luzern: 75.5% – 93.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Young Boys (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luzern will win (23 of 25 users predict this - 92%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Luzern (votes: 23 - 88.5%). Young Boys (votes: 2 - 7.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Loretz P. (G) 20. Dorn P. (C) 46. Freimann B. 4. Bajrami A. 22. Dantas R. 6. Abe T. 24. Owusu T. 11. Di Giusto M. 73. Silva Ferreira L. M. 81. Von Moos J. 16. Kabwit O.	1. Keller M. (G) 22. Valery Y. 5. Wuthrich G. 23. Benito L. (C) 33. Bukinac S. 30. Lauper S. 6. Fernandes E. 10. Sanches A. 37. Gigovic A. 77. Monteiro J. 99. Essende S.
Substitutes
14. Ciganiks A. 9. Grbic A. 10. Karweina S. 5. Knezevic S. 2. Ottiger S. 90. Vasic V. (G) 19. Vasovic A. 27. Villiger L. 29. Winkler L.	29. Bedia C. 16. Fassnacht C. 17. Janko S. 12. Lindner H. (G) 39. Males D. 13. Pech D. 45. Raveloson R. 7. Virginius A. 4. Zoukrou T.
Coaches
Frick M.	Seoane G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Silva Ferreira L. M. 🟨,
41', Silva Ferreira L. M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', Bukinac S. ↓, Bedia C. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Fernandes E. ⚽,
60', Von Moos J. ↓, Ottiger S. ↑,
74', Dantas R. ↓, Ciganiks A. ↑,
74', Kabwit O. ↓, Villiger L. ↑,
74', Abe T. ↓, Winkler L. ↑,
78', Essende S. ↓, Fassnacht C. ↑,
78', Sanches A. ↓, Males D. ↑,
78', Gigovic A. ↓, Pech D. ↑,
79', 0 - 2, Males D. ⚽,
80', Di Giusto M. ↓, Karweina S. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Karweina S. (Penalty Awarded),
89', Keller M. 🟨,
90+2', Fassnacht C. 🟨,
90+6', Monteiro J. ↓, Zoukrou T. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luzern won 1.

Luzern is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Young Boys has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Young Boys may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Luzern: Spadanuda K. (Injury) Zimmermann M. (Hip Injury)

There will not play in Young Boys: Andrews R. (Muscle Injury) Conte F. (Knee Injury) Hadjam J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Luzern won 1 match, drew 7 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 30:50. (average 1.5:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Luzern won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:18. (average 1.9:1.8).

Outrights of Swiss Super League for now

Young Boys: 25.15% Luzern: 1.66%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Young Boys	9	5	4	0	31:18	13	19
8	Luzern	10	3	3	4	17:22	-5	12

Last Results with these Odds

Luzern - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 34.73%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Luzern
Swiss Super League
28.02.26	Thun - Luzern	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Luzern - Basel	4:2 ✺
14.02.26	Zürich - Luzern	1:4 ✺
10.02.26	Luzern - Grasshoppers	4:3 ✺
07.02.26	Sion - Luzern	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWWWT
- Young Boys
Swiss Super League
01.03.26	Young Boys - Zürich	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	Sion - Young Boys	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Young Boys - Winterthur	6:1 ✺
11.02.26	St. Gallen - Young Boys	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Grasshoppers - Young Boys	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
14.12.25	Young Boys - Luzern	2:0
14.09.25	Luzern - Young Boys	1:2
15.05.25	Young Boys - Luzern	2:1
13.04.25	Luzern - Young Boys	5:0
23.11.24	Luzern - Young Boys	1:1
19.10.24	Young Boys - Luzern	2:1
14.04.24	Young Boys - Luzern	4:2

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