Match Info

Super League - Round 27

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Thun		Luzern

	1	X	2
	1.79	3.9	3.8	Watch
	1.75	4	4
	1.82	3.9	3.6
	1.88	4.27	3.73
	1.88	4.01	3.69	Watch
	1.85	3.8	3.5
	1.8	4.15	3.65	Watch
	1.65	4.2	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.63)	4.03 ↓ (4.08)	3.83 ↓ (4.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thun
52.1%

Draw
23.3%

Luzern
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

22.8%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

21.7%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Luzern has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thun than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Thun, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luzern than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luzern, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	15.4%	23.1%

Thun - Luzern Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Thun will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Luzern will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Thun: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Luzern (2.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Thun (1.27) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Thun (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Thun will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Thun (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Luzern (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Steffen N. (G) 47. Fehr F. 19. Bamert J. 23. Burki M. (C) 27. Heule M. 7. Imeri K. 6. Bertone L. 14. Kait M. 78. Matoshi V. 96. Labeau B. 74. Rastoder E.	1. Loretz P. (G) 20. Dorn P. 46. Freimann B. 4. Bajrami A. 22. Dantas R. 24. Owusu T. 6. Abe T. 11. Di Giusto M. 73. Silva Ferreira L. M. 27. Villiger L. 16. Kabwit O.
Substitutes
37. Dahler L. 9. Dursun F. 18. Ibayi C. 77. Meichtry F. 4. Montolio G. 70. Reichmuth N. 16. Roth J. 20. Rupp N. 25. Spycher T. (G)	14. Ciganiks A. 9. Grbic A. 10. Karweina S. 5. Knezevic S. 2. Ottiger S. 90. Vasic V. (G) 19. Vasovic A. 81. Von Moos J. 29. Winkler L.
Coaches
Lustrinelli M.	Frick M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Imeri K. ⚽, Matoshi V. (A),
29', 2 - 0, Rastoder E. ⚽,
43', 2 - 1, Kabwit O. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Villiger L. ↓, Von Moos J. ↑,
58', Silva Ferreira L. M. ↓, Winkler L. ↑,
60', Imeri K. ↓, Roth J. ↑,
60', Heule M. ↓, Montolio G. ↑,
70', Labeau B. ↓, Dursun F. ↑,
70', Matoshi V. ↓, Meichtry F. ↑,
73', Abe T. ↓, Karweina S. ↑,
82', Freimann B. 🟨,
84', Rastoder E. ↓, Dahler L. ↑,
85', Steffen N. 🟨,
86', Kabwit O. ↓, Vasovic A. ↑,
90', Vasic V. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: )).

Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thun won 3.

Thun has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Luzern is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Luzern may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Thun is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Thun: Ziswiler N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Luzern: Spadanuda K. (Injury) Zimmermann M. (Hip Injury)

There are questionable in Thun: Janjicic V. (Inactive) Meichtry F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Luzern: Knezevic S. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Thun won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:25. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Thun won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.6:1.2).

Outrights of Swiss Super League for now

Luzern: 1.66% Thun: 1.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Luzern	10	3	3	4	17:22	-5	12
9	Thun	10	3	1	6	17:27	-10	10

Last Results with these Odds

Thun - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 57.01%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Thun
Swiss Super League
25.02.26	Winterthur - Thun	0:3 ✺
15.02.26	Thun - Sion	1:0 ✺
12.02.26	Thun - Lausanne-Sport	5:1 ✺
08.02.26	Servette - Thun	1:3 ✺
01.02.26	Basel - Thun	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWWW
- FC Luzern
Swiss Super League
22.02.26	Luzern - Basel	4:2 ✺
14.02.26	Zürich - Luzern	1:4 ✺
10.02.26	Luzern - Grasshoppers	4:3 ✺
07.02.26	Sion - Luzern	0:0 ✺
Swiss Cup
04.02.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Luzern	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
06.12.25	Thun - Luzern	4:1
09.08.25	Luzern - Thun	1:2
Swiss Cup
16.09.23	Thun - Luzern	1:3 ET
31.01.23	Thun - Luzern	3:2 penalties
13.09.20	Thun - Luzern	0:1
Swiss Super League
05.07.20	Luzern - Thun	3:0
22.02.20	Thun - Luzern	1:1

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