Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 1

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)


	Mérida AD		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.2	3.8
	2.1	3	3.1
	1.95	3.2	3.7
	2.02	3.33	3.99
	2.05	3.03	3.88	Watch
	2	3.18	3.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.12)	3.16 ↓ (3.16)	3.7 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
46%

Draw
29.2%

Barakaldo
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

28.8%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

27.9%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Mérida AD - Barakaldo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 19. Pipe 3. Lancho J. 5. Martinez G. 23. Verges E. 17. Herranz Corral V. 8. Solar M. 10. Doncel C. 21. Beneit R. 7. Chiqui 9. Garcia A.	1. Ispizua I. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 4. Dufur U. 18. Arana M. 23. Albizua U. 7. Pedernales I. 6. Naveira U. 21. San Bartolome V. 8. Huidobro J. 14. Munoz I. 19. Galarza A.
Substitutes
11. Areso J. 14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 18. Dibrani B. 26. Gil A. 20. Jacobo R. 6. Miki 4. Pareja Alvarez L. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.	13. Campos G. (G) 17. de Leon J. 3. Garcia B. 26. Huete H. 20. Mandiang S. 5. Molina E. 11. Perez E. 24. Ropero I. 9. Valino A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Herranz Corral V. 🟨,
42', Galarza A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', San Bartolome V. ↓, Molina E. ↑,
59', Munoz I. ↓, Mandiang S. ↑,
59', Albizua U. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
68', Naveira U. 🟨,
70', 1 - 0, Doncel C. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Mérida AD has had a series of away games.

Mérida AD will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Club Friendly
22.08.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD	2:5 ✺
15.08.25	Santa Amalia - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
08.08.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid C	2:2 ✺
02.08.25	Torreense - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Don Álvaro - Mérida AD	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTTLW
- Barakaldo CF
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Barakaldo - Real Unión de Irun	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	0:0 ✺
06.08.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Barakaldo	1:2 ✺
30.07.25	Barakaldo - Osasuna B	1:2 ✺
26.07.25	Burgos - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TTWLL

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