Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 12

Date: 10 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Mérida AD		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.75	2.7
	2.6	2.95	2.45
	2.8	2.9	2.7
	2.78	3.09	2.63
	2.72	2.97	2.61	Watch
	2.8	2.83	2.64
	2.8	2.9	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.53)	2.91 ↑ (2.73)	2.63 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
33.4%

Draw
31.6%

Ceuta
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

33.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

32.8%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ceuta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mérida AD - Ceuta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Juanpa (G) 19. Pipe 5. Pareja Alvarez L. 28. del Cerro S. 22. Climent M. 11. Doncel C. 17. Ganet P. 23. Busi 10. Juanjo 21. Beneit R. 9. Mizzian M.	1. Lopez P. (G) 2. Delgado F. 6. Hernandez C. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 7. Ahmed A. 5. Bellotti M. 3. Lolo Gonzalez 19. Jamelli 20. Escudero A. 9. Rodri
Substitutes
7. Alvaro J. 12. Beer J. 4. Bonaque M. 8. Eslava J. 18. Falcon E. 16. Garcia P. 26. Macia I. (G) 15. Prevedini M. 3. Sergi 13. Vicente D. (G)	22. Aguero 11. Aquino D. 14. Blesa Alex 18. El Ftouhi S. 15. Guzman J. 12. Herranz Corral V. 21. Lopez J. 8. Ramos D. 17. Taufek B. M. 13. Vallejo G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Cantero Y. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Doncel C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Jamelli ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
46', Lolo Gonzalez ↓, Herranz Corral V. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Cantero Y. ⚽,
60', Doncel C. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
60', Mizzian M. ↓, Sergi ↑,
63', Rodri ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
63', Escudero A. ↓, El Ftouhi S. ↑,
66', Bellotti M. 🟨,
69', Doncel C. ↓, Beer J. ↑,
77', Ahmed A. ↓, Aguero ↑,

Preview

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 9 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mérida AD won 3.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Ceuta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Mérida AD won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:5 (average 1.3:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Mérida AD won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:3 (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Mérida AD - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 36.22%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.11.24	Alcorcón - Mérida AD	2:2 ✺
27.10.24	Mérida AD - Alcoyano	2:2 ✺
20.10.24	Mérida AD - Betis B	1:1 ✺
12.10.24	Antequera - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
06.10.24	Mérida AD - Villarreal B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTTTT
- AD Ceuta
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.11.24	Xerez CD - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.11.24	Ceuta - Real Murcia	4:2 ✺
26.10.24	Sevilla B - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
19.10.24	Algeciras - Ceuta	2:0 ✺
13.10.24	Ceuta - Intercity	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
25.05.24	Mérida AD - Ceuta	3:2
17.12.23	Ceuta - Mérida AD	1:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.04.23	Ceuta - Mérida AD	1:0
20.11.22	Mérida AD - Ceuta	2:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
30.01.22	Ceuta - Mérida AD	0:1
12.09.21	Mérida AD - Ceuta	1:1

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