Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 18

Date: 21 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Mérida AD		Fuenlabrada

	1	X	2
	1.8	3	4.75
	1.77	3.1	4.2
	1.84	3.1	4.6
	1.85	3.24	4.59
	1.82	3.14	4.58	Watch
	1.95	3	4
	1.87	3.1	4.43
	1.84	3.1	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.33)	3.1 ↑ (3.03)	4.47 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
49.8%

Draw
29.6%

Fuenlabrada
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

30.3%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

31.9%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mérida AD's performance.

Fuenlabrada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fuenlabrada might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mérida AD that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fuenlabrada than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fuenlabrada could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Mérida AD - Fuenlabrada Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Mérida AD will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Juanpa (G) 19. Pipe 4. Bonaque M. 18. Falcon E. 22. Climent M. 11. Doncel C. 10. Juanjo 21. Beneit R. 17. Ganet P. 14. Beltran L. 8. Eslava J.	1. Diaz Parcero L. (G) 17. Ouacharaf B. 5. Alba D. 6. Alvaro Garcia 3. Barbu 15. Moyano A. 16. Aguza S. 22. Javi Curras 10. Galindo A. 11. Abde 7. Manu
Substitutes
12. Beer J. 23. Busi 28. del Cerro S. 16. Garcia P. 5. Pareja Alvarez L. 15. Prevedini M. 3. Sergi 13. Vicente D. (G)	13. Bloch F. (G) 23. Chang-Sang J. 19. Faure I. 26. Garcia M. 35. Jaime R. 4. Mauro M. 21. Nene 28. Sanchez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Barbu (Own goal),
37', Abde ↓, Nene ↑,
40', Ganet P. 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Falcon E. ⚽,
45', Juanjo 🟨,
45+1', Galindo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Alvaro Garcia 🟨,
53', Doncel C. 🟨,
59', Manu 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Manu ⚽,
62', Doncel C. ↓, Busi ↑,
64', Javi Curras ↓, Faure I. ↑,
64', Galindo A. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
69', Manu 🟨,
73', Juanjo ↓, del Cerro S. ↑,
84', Pipe ↓, Prevedini M. ↑,
84', Eslava J. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
84', Ganet P. ↓, Sergi ↑,
85', Aguza S. ↓, Mauro M. ↑,
87', Barbu 🟨,
90+1', Barbu 🟨,
90+5', Mauro M. 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 9 and 11).

Recent matches Mérida AD is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fuenlabrada is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Mérida AD is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Mérida AD won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Mérida AD won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
14.12.24	Yeclano Deportivo - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
08.12.24	Mérida AD - Hércules	2:1 ✺
30.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	6:0 ✺
23.11.24	Mérida AD - Intercity	2:1 ✺
17.11.24	Atlético Madrid B - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWLWL
- CF Fuenlabrada
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
15.12.24	Fuenlabrada - Real Murcia	0:0 ✺
07.12.24	Sevilla B - Fuenlabrada	0:0 ✺
29.11.24	Fuenlabrada - Betis B	2:1 ✺
24.11.24	Fuenlabrada - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
17.11.24	Intercity - Fuenlabrada	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.03.23	Mérida AD - Fuenlabrada	2:0
06.12.22	Fuenlabrada - Mérida AD	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.09.17	Fuenlabrada - Mérida AD	2:0

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