Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 14

Date: 24 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Fernando Torres (Fuenlabrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Fuenlabrada		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	1.85	3	4.5
	2.05	2.95	3.4
	2.05	3	3.9
	2.12	3.06	3.65
	1.97	3.12	3.86	Watch
	1.89	3.24	4.08
	2.05	3	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.74)	3.05 ↑ (2.92)	3.9 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fuenlabrada
46.2%

Draw
30.2%

Real Madrid Castilla
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

31.5%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

30.5%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fuenlabrada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fuenlabrada's performance.

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid Castilla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fuenlabrada than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fuenlabrada that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid Castilla could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Fuenlabrada - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fuenlabrada will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Real Madrid Castilla will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diaz Parcero L. (G) 17. Ouacharaf B. 4. Mauro M. 5. Alba D. 6. Alvaro Garcia 8. Ruiz Fer 15. Moyano A. 10. Galindo A. 11. Abde 9. Omoigui C. 7. Manu	13. Fran (G) 29. Rivas M. 28. Ribes K. 23. Yusi 22. Jimenez D. 16. Antonio David 6. Andres C. 17. Ruiz D. 9. Munoz V. 7. Garcia G. 26. De Llanos H.
Substitutes
3. Barbu 13. Bloch F. (G) 20. Casas I. 23. Chang-Sang J. 19. Faure I. 22. Javi Curras 21. Nene 18. Sangare L.	25. de Luis M. (G) 27. Fortuny P. 2. Lorenzo 33. Perea C. 1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 36. Yanez D. 19. Zuniga L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Manu ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, Mauro M. (Own goal),
33', 2 - 1, Omoigui C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ruiz D. ↓, Yanez D. ↑,
46', De Llanos H. ↓, Zuniga L. ↑,
62', 2 - 2, Garcia G. ⚽,
72', Manu ↓, Faure I. ↑,
76', Ruiz Fer 🟨,
80', Galindo A. ↓, Sangare L. ↑,
80', Omoigui C. ↓, Barbu ↑,
87', 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 13 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fuenlabrada won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Fuenlabrada could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Fuenlabrada won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14:17 (average 1:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Fuenlabrada won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:4 (average 0.8:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Fuenlabrada
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.11.24	Intercity - Fuenlabrada	1:3 ✺
10.11.24	Fuenlabrada - Hércules	2:1 ✺
02.11.24	Algeciras - Fuenlabrada	2:1 ✺
25.10.24	Fuenlabrada - Ibiza	1:0 ✺
20.10.24	Atlético Sanluqueño - Fuenlabrada	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLWL
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Antequera	1:2 ✺
08.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Intercity	5:0 ✺
02.11.24	Atlético Madrid B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
27.10.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	1:1 ✺
20.10.24	Alcorcón - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
12.08.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada	1:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.05.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada	0:0
18.12.22	Fuenlabrada - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2
Club Friendly
17.08.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada	3:4
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
17.03.19	Fuenlabrada - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0
27.10.18	Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada	0:1
22.04.18	Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada	1:1

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