Match Info

Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Mérida AD		Real Sociedad B

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.3
	2.09	3.2	3.45
	2.04	3.05	3.25
	2.07	3.16	3.46	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.3
	2.14	3.23	3.44
	2.09	3.2	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.16)	3.15 ↓ (3.15)	3.38 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
43.8%

Draw
29.1%

Real Sociedad B
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

29.2%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

30.3%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Real Sociedad B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad B than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Mérida AD - Real Sociedad B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Juanpa (G) 19. Pipe 4. Bonaque M. 22. Athuman I. 21. Beneit R. 10. Juanjo 7. Alvaro J. 28. del Cerro S. 14. Beltran L. 8. Eslava J. 11. Doncel C.	1. Fraga A. (G) 22. Ruperez I. 24. Beitia L. 15. Rodriguez P. 3. Balda J. 40. Astiazaran L. 8. Rodriguez M. 10. Goti Lopez M. 28. Carbonell T. 19. Marchal A. 20. Mariezkurrena A.
Substitutes
23. Busi 24. Carvalho M. 18. Falcon E. 17. Ganet P. 3. Jimenez N. 26. Macia I. (G) 6. Miki 20. Nabian H. 15. Prevedini M. 16. Sanchez E. 27. Tiago Leal 13. Vicente D. (G)	23. Agote U. 13. Arana E. (G) 5. Astigarraga E. 35. Carrera G. 18. Garcia E. 16. Gibelalde M. 44. Gorosabel G. 6. Lebarbier A. 21. Merino J. 11. Ochieng J. 9. Orobengoa E. 17. Ramirez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', 🟨,
36', Bonaque M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Rodriguez M. ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
62', 🟨,
67', Beneit R. ↓, Carvalho M. ↑,
67', Doncel C. ↓, Prevedini M. ↑,
67', Bonaque M. ↓, Ganet P. ↑,
69', 0 - 1, Mariezkurrena A. ⚽,
72', Marchal A. ↓, Ochieng J. ↑,
72', Carbonell T. ↓, Lebarbier A. ↑,
77', Alvaro J. ↓, Nabian H. ↑,
77', del Cerro S. ↓, Jimenez N. ↑,
77', Rodriguez P. ↓, Gibelalde M. ↑,
90', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Mérida AD has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Sociedad B is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mérida AD is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
24.05.25	Mérida AD - Atlético Madrid B	2:2 ✺
17.05.25	Recreativo Huelva - Mérida AD	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
03.05.25	Ceuta - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Mérida AD - Antequera	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWTLW
- Real Sociedad B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.05.25	Real Sociedad B - Celta de Vigo B	2:0 ✺
17.05.25	Arenteiro - Real Sociedad B	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Real Sociedad B - Ponferradina	3:2 ✺
02.05.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - Real Sociedad B	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Real Sociedad B - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTWTW

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