Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 26

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday


	Mārupe		Ogre United

	1	X	2
	5.9	4.85	1.36	Watch
	6.05	4.52	1.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.98 ↑ (5.9)	4.69 ↓ (4.85)	1.4 ↑ (1.36)

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mārupe
15.2%

Draw
19.4%

Ogre United
65.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.3%

18.6%

66.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15%

18.2%

67.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mārupe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Ogre United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mārupe than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zandreiters R. (G) 11. Cebotarjovs V. 41. Garais P. 23. Kirilins A. 6. Komorovskis K. 17. Korolcuks R. 7. Korsaks K. (C) 19. Krievins R. 14. Oliynyk M. 21. Strauss G. 22. Zarovs N.	20. Biscuhis K. (G) 5. Hayashi K. 10. Kalnins M. 6. Karklins K. (C) 7. Kumakura K. 4. Mamich D. 3. Marusiy T. 16. Mashchenko V. 9. Silagailis H. 88. Stepanovs V. 2. Ziemelis R.
Substitutes
12. Bareika K. (G) 33. Calitis M. 9. Dobrajs M. 37. Korzans R. 18. Roga R. 10. Sadovnikovs R. 47. Silins M. 16. Sula M.	32. Grigorjevs D. (G) 30. Hvoinickis D. 19. Jamonts K. 14. Juhnovics R. 15. Licis K. 11. Pacepko M. 21. Salins D. 8. Skujins R. 22. Sprukulis K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Mashchenko V. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mashchenko V. ↓, Jamonts K. ↑,
49', Garais P. 🟨,
57', Zarovs N. 🟨,
61', Korsaks K. ↓, Korzans R. ↑,
61', Garais P. ↓, Roga R. ↑,
61', Zarovs N. ↓, Sula M. ↑,
63', Korolcuks R. 🟨,
68', Stepanovs V. ↓, Pacepko M. ↑,
68', Silagailis H. ↓, Sprukulis K. ↑,
71', Salins D. 🟨,
74', Silagailis H. 🟨,
84', Kirilins A. ↓, Sadovnikovs R. ↑,
84', Komorovskis K. ↓, Silins M. ↑,
86', Kalnins M. ↓, Licis K. ↑,
86', Strauss G. 🟨,
90+3', Mamich D. ↓, Juhnovics R. ↑,
90+4', Pacepko M. 🟨,
90+4', Korolcuks R. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Virsliga (Promotion: )).

Mārupe has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ogre United is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Ogre United has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ogre United is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mārupe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1.3:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, Mārupe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mārupes SC
Latvian 1 Liga
01.11.25	JFK Ventspils - Mārupe	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Mārupe - Olaine	5:1 ✺
05.10.25	Rēzekne - Mārupe	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Mārupe - Skanstes	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Riga 2 - Mārupe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLL
- Ogre United
Latvian 1 Liga
01.11.25	Ogre United - Skanstes	3:0 ✺
25.10.25	Riga 2 - Ogre United	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Ogre United - JDFS Alberts	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Ogre United - Smiltene	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Ogre United - Riga Mariners	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
18.07.25	Ogre United - Mārupe	3:1
26.10.24	Ogre United - Mārupe	3:0
06.07.24	Mārupe - Ogre United	3:2

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