Match Info

1. Liga - Round 21

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Futbols TV


	Mārupe		Riga 2

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.60	1.95
	3.00	3.70	1.95
	2.90	3.95	1.94
	2.19	3.71	2.72	Watch
	2.85	3.90	1.92
	3.02	3.82	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.17)	3.78 ↑ (3.77)	2.07 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mārupe
32.1%

Draw
24%

Riga 2
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

24.3%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

24.8%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mārupe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mārupe's form might have worsened.

Riga 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Riga 2's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mārupe than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mārupe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Riga 2 than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Riga 2, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mārupe - Riga 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6th and 8th).

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Mārupe could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Riga 2 has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Mārupe has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:3 (averaging 1.4:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mārupe against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:0 goals (averaging 1:0 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Marupe	21	9	2	10	34:32	2	29
8	Riga FC 2	21	7	5	9	29:37	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mārupes SC
Latvian 1 Liga
12.09.26	Mārupe - Tukums 2000 2	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	Mārupe - JDFS Alberts	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Valmiera - Mārupe	4:1 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga Women
15.08.26	Mārupe - Super Nova 2	2:1 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
01.08.26	Skanstes - Mārupe	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLWL
- Riga FC 2
Latvian 1 Liga
13.09.26	Riga 2 - Leevon PPK	1:1 ✺
07.09.26	Riga 2 - Skanstes	3:2 ✺
29.08.26	JFK Ventspils - Riga 2	1:1 ✺
24.08.26	Riga 2 - Riga Mariners	1:3 ✺
01.08.26	Riga 2 - Metta	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
17.05.26	Riga 2 - Mārupe	0:4
20.09.25	Riga 2 - Mārupe	1:0
11.05.25	Mārupe - Riga 2	2:0
10.11.24	Riga 2 - Mārupe	2:1
27.07.24	Mārupe - Riga 2	0:0

Mārupe - Riga 2: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide