Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Mezokovesdi Varosi Stadion (Mezőkövesdi)

Referee: Muller J. (Lux)

Where to Watch on TV:


Montenegro	TVCG 1, TVCG 2


	ML Vitebsk		Sutjeska

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.70	3.50	4.60
	1.55	3.7	5.4	Watch
	1.58	4.09	5.87
	1.74	3.77	4.48	Watch
	1.49	4	5.8
	1.67	3.97	4.96	Watch
	1.59	3.8	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.88)	3.83 ↑ (3.59)	5.16 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ML Vitebsk
57.6%

Draw
24.3%

Sutjeska
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

25.6%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

25.6%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ML Vitebsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ML Vitebsk's performance.

Sutjeska has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sutjeska might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ML Vitebsk than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with ML Vitebsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sutjeska than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sutjeska could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.7%	5.3%	0%

ML Vitebsk - Sutjeska Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. ML Vitebsk (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Sutjeska (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: ML Vitebsk will win (18 of 19 users predict this - 94.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.7% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. ML Vitebsk (votes: 1 - 50%). Sutjeska (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pavlyuchenko P. (G) 23. Balanovich S. (C) 20. Volkov Z. 6. Gomanov K. 22. Skibskiy Y. 55. Gromyko V. 15. Bocherov V. 27. Mesarovic A. 10. Cleonise D. 80. Kontsevoy A. 12. Bosic R.	1. Giljen V. (C) 2. Golubovic A. 15. Kopitovic B. 72. Babic A. 4. Vracar M. 20. Cadjenovic J. 6. Hocko D. 77. Simun M. 11. Cavor V. 55. Babic S. 7. Boljevic A.
Substitutes
3. Baranok N. 99. Bulanov M. 9. Diabate B. 8. Gnaka S. 7. Ivanov T. 5. Mohammadi M. 45. Moskalenchik I. 11. Nicholson S. 30. Shcherbachenya P. (G) 18. Zhuk V.	9. Anicic P. 14. Brnovic M. 3. Camara M. 21. Cetkovic D. 44. Dedic R. 25. Djukanovic M. 23. Dubljevic R. (G) 12. Durovic T. (G) 30. Kecojevic A. 5. Pajovic I. 19. Scekic A. 10. Toskovic B.
Coaches
Sokolinsky F.	Pekovic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', Bocherov V. 🟨,
30', Kopitovic B. 🟨,
31', Gromyko V. (Penalty Awarded),
31', 1 - 0, Gromyko V. ⚽,
37', 2 - 0, Gomanov K. ⚽, Kontsevoy A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Cavor V. ↓, Toskovic B. ↑,
46', Golubovic A. ↓, Pajovic I. ↑,
46', Cadjenovic J. ↓, Scekic A. ↑,
57', Skibskiy Y. 🟨,
64', Cleonise D. ↓, Diabate B. ↑,
65', 3 - 0, Diabate B. ⚽,
78', Gromyko V. ↓, Gnaka S. ↑,
78', Balanovich S. ↓, Moskalenchik I. ↑,
78', Babic S. ↓, Anicic P. ↑,
87', Bosic R. ↓, Mohammadi M. ↑,
87', Skibskiy Y. ↓, Zhuk V. ↑,
90', Simun M. ↓, Camara M. ↑,

Preview

First leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Mezokovesdi Varosi Stadion.

ML Vitebsk has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sutjeska has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, ML Vitebsk is seen as the favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ML Vitebsk
UEFA Champions League
15.07.26	Universitatea Craiova - ML Vitebsk	1:0 ✺
08.07.26	ML Vitebsk - Universitatea Craiova	1:4 ✺
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
01.07.26	Slavia Mozyr - ML Vitebsk	2:4 ✺
27.06.26	ML Vitebsk - Naftan	2:1 ✺
21.06.26	Minsk - ML Vitebsk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLWWT
- Sutjeska FK
UEFA Champions League
15.07.26	Sutjeska - Kairat	0:2 ✺
08.07.26	Kairat - Sutjeska	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.26	Sutjeska - Sarajevo	1:2 ✺
24.06.26	AF Elbasani - Sutjeska	Canceled ✺
23.06.26	Borac Banja Luka - Sutjeska	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLL?L

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