Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 12

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: De Geusselt (Maastricht)

Referee: Martens R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2


	MVV Maastricht		Vitesse

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.4	2.85	Watch
	2.28	3.55	2.82
	2.33	3.73	2.92
	2.03	3.78	3.05	Watch
	2.3	3.58	2.79	Watch
	2.17	3.7	2.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.02)	3.62 ↓ (3.75)	2.88 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

MVV Maastricht
41.9%

Draw
25.7%

Vitesse
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

24.6%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

25.4%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

MVV Maastricht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Vitesse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for MVV Maastricht than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for MVV Maastricht, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitesse than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	13.3%	60%

MVV Maastricht - Vitesse Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Maastricht will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Vitesse will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vitesse: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Maastricht (votes: 1 - 20%). Vitesse (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Westerveld S. (G) 32. Tran L. M. 22. Breugelmans I. 4. Coomans W. 34. Schenk L. 6. El Basri N. 38. Klaasen R. 7. Camil Mmaee 8. Van Dessel S. 10. Silva Timas I. 21. Asante D.	31. Brull M. (G) 2. Bonnah S. 55. Steffen M. 17. Zumberi V. 24. Markelo N. 7. Hoogewerf D. 6. Schikora M. 33. Marschalk M. 19. Tahaui A. 13. Pinto J. 9. Huth E.
Substitutes
9. Braken S. 3. Dicke F. 27. Foubert L. 2. Francis S. 31. Kleinen M. 14. Kuipers M. 12. Rijnbout N. (G) 39. Sy K. 23. van der Heijden S. (G) 26. van Kempen M. 11. Verheijen T. 24. Zaian A.	35. Achouitar O. 5. Bakker J. 20. Bannis N. 8. Moustafa A. 11. Ranon Y. 23. Siecker J. (G) 22. Thenu X. 16. van den Berg C. (G) 27. Zonneveld N.
Coaches
Hermans E.	Rehm R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Silva Timas I. ⚽, Klaasen R. (A),
33', Schenk L. ↓, van Kempen M. ↑,
37', Zumberi V. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
49', 2 - 0, Camil Mmaee ⚽, El Basri N. (A),
68', 3 - 0, Silva Timas I. ⚽, Camil Mmaee (A),
70', Bonnah S. ↓, Bannis N. ↑,
70', Marschalk M. ↓, Zonneveld N. ↑,
70', Hoogewerf D. ↓, Bakker J. ↑,
79', Tahaui A. ↓, Moustafa A. ↑,
80', Pinto J. ↓, Ranon Y. ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Steffen M. ⚽, Zonneveld N. (A),
83', El Basri N. ↓, Kleinen M. ↑,
86', 3 - 2, Bannis N. ⚽, Schikora M. (A),
88', Camil Mmaee ↓, Foubert L. ↑,
88', Silva Timas I. ↓, Dicke F. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 15 and 20).

Maastricht has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vitesse is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Maastricht may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Maastricht: Poitoux T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Maastricht won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Maastricht won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MVV Maastricht
Dutch Eerste Divisie
17.10.25	Jong Utrecht - MVV Maastricht	3:1 ✺
03.10.25	MVV Maastricht - FC Eindhoven	3:1 ✺
29.09.25	Jong PSV - MVV Maastricht	2:2 ✺
26.09.25	MVV Maastricht - Emmen	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	VVV-Venlo - MVV Maastricht	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWTWL
- Vitesse Arnhem
Dutch Eerste Divisie
17.10.25	FC Eindhoven - Vitesse	0:4 ✺
10.10.25	Almere City - Vitesse	2:2 ✺
06.10.25	Vitesse - Den Bosch	N/A ✺
03.10.25	Vitesse - Jong Utrecht	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Emmen - Vitesse	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 35.7 WT?WW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
01.03.25	Vitesse - MVV Maastricht	1:0
06.12.24	MVV Maastricht - Vitesse	2:2

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