Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Location: De Geusselt (Maastricht)

Referee: Calluy R. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN Extra


	MVV Maastricht		Emmen

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.6	2.15	Watch
	2.92	3.7	2.18
	3.02	3.76	2.25
	3.06	2.41	3.06	Watch
	2.92	3.63	2.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.6)	3.42 ↓ (3.72)	2.37 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

MVV Maastricht
32.2%

Draw
27.8%

Emmen
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

25.2%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

25.4%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

MVV Maastricht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Emmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for MVV Maastricht than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emmen than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.8%	0%	88.2%

MVV Maastricht - Emmen Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Maastricht will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Emmen will win (votes: 15 - 88.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Emmen: 72.9% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Emmen (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Emmen will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Maastricht (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Emmen (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Westerveld S. (G) 32. Tran L. M. 22. Breugelmans I. (C) 4. Coomans W. 34. Schenk L. 7. Camil Mmaee 38. Klaasen R. 8. Van Dessel S. 14. Kuipers M. 6. El Basri N. 10. Silva Timas I.	38. Unbehaun L. (G) 36. Everink L. 4. Ostergaard C. 6. Mulder P. (C) 17. Larsen L. 25. Kongolo R. 8. Bakir A. 19. Claridge A. 12. Quispel F. 9. Postema R. 77. Gerezgiher F.
Substitutes
28. Amgar A. 21. Asante D. 27. Foubert L. 2. Francis S. 40. Geerinck R. (G) 31. Kleinen M. 15. Pinto Da Costa R. 39. Sy K. 23. van der Heijden S. (G) 26. van Kempen M. 11. Verheijen T. 24. Zaian A.	34. Bolk G. 1. Bucker K. (G) 18. Evina F. 5. Geypens T. 24. Mesbahi J. 16. Norder K. (G) 21. Nunumete D. 23. Oostra T. 15. Sunder C. 14. van Manen S.
Coaches
Hermans E.	van Dam M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kongolo R. ↓, Geypens T. ↑,
46', Quispel F. ↓, Evina F. ↑,
59', Claridge A. 🟥,
63', Gerezgiher F. ↓, Mesbahi J. ↑,
64', Mulder P. 🟨,
69', Evina F. ↓, Nunumete D. ↑,
72', Silva Timas I. ↓, Foubert L. ↑,
84', Coomans W. ↓, Asante D. ↑,
86', Everink L. ↓, Bolk G. ↑,
87', El Basri N. ↓, Kleinen M. ↑,
87', Kuipers M. ↓, Verheijen T. ↑,
90', 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 0, Camil Mmaee ⚽, Schenk L. (A),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maastricht won 1.

Maastricht is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Emmen is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Maastricht may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Emmen is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Maastricht: Poitoux T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Emmen: Denk L. (Knee Injury) Kade J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Maastricht: Braken S. (Injury) Dicke F. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Maastricht won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:31. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Maastricht won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.2:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

MVV Maastricht - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 36.12%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MVV Maastricht
Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.09.25	VVV-Venlo - MVV Maastricht	1:0 ✺
16.09.25	MVV Maastricht - Den Bosch	2:4 ✺
12.09.25	MVV Maastricht - Cambuur	0:1 ✺
29.08.25	Jong Ajax - MVV Maastricht	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	De Graafschap - MVV Maastricht	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LLLTW
- FC Emmen
Dutch Eerste Divisie
19.09.25	Emmen - Dordrecht	2:0 ✺
12.09.25	Emmen - FC Oss	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	De Graafschap - Emmen	2:3 ✺
29.08.25	Emmen - Den Bosch	3:1 ✺
22.08.25	Helmond Sport - Emmen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
28.03.25	MVV Maastricht - Emmen	1:2
04.10.24	Emmen - MVV Maastricht	1:1
12.04.24	Emmen - MVV Maastricht	1:3
06.11.23	MVV Maastricht - Emmen	1:1
17.12.21	MVV Maastricht - Emmen	0:1
10.09.21	Emmen - MVV Maastricht	7:1
02.04.18	MVV Maastricht - Emmen	0:1

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