Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 18

Date: 1 December 2025, Monday

Location: Sportcomplex De Toekomst (Ouder-Amstel)

Referee: Hardeman T. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2


	Jong Ajax		Vitesse

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.75	1.91	Watch
	3.05	3.7	1.92
	3.32	4.01	2.04
	2.77	3.81	2.24	Watch
	3.1	3.75	2
	3.23	3.75	2.01	Watch
	3	4	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.77)	3.82 ↑ (3.81)	2.02 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong Ajax
29.7%

Draw
24.3%

Vitesse
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

24.5%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

24.8%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Vitesse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitesse than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	10%	75%

Jong Ajax - Vitesse Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Jong Ajax will win (votes: 3 - 15%). Vitesse will win (votes: 15 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vitesse: 56% – 94%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Vitesse (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vitesse will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitesse (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heerkens J. (G) 2. Appiah A. 3. Johnson J. 4. Muzungu M. 5. Butera E. 6. Peters T. 8. Vink S. 10. Chourak N. (C) 11. O'Niel D. 9. Konadu D. 7. Unuvar E.	31. Brull M. (G) 24. Markelo N. 35. Achouitar O. 17. Zumberi V. 28. Buttner A. (C) 6. Schikora M. 33. Marschalk M. 27. Zonneveld N. 19. Tahaui A. 7. Hoogewerf D. 9. Huth E.
Substitutes
14. Jetten L. 17. Kalokoh D. 13. Kasanwirjo K. 20. Messori L. 16. Ouazane A. 18. Ouazane Z. 12. Setford C. (G) 15. van der Vaart D. 19. Wolff K.	5. Bakker J. 20. Bannis N. 2. Bonnah S. 30. Driezen M. 8. Moustafa A. 34. Ouallil Y. 13. Pinto J. 11. Ranon Y. 29. Rodrigues M. 23. Siecker J. (G) 22. Thenu X. 16. van den Berg C. (G)
Coaches
Weijs W.	Rehm R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Unuvar E. 🟨,
24', O'Niel D. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Konadu D. ⚽, Unuvar E. (A),
39', Schikora M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 2 - 0, O'Niel D. ⚽, Peters T. (A),
62', O'Niel D. ↓, Ouazane Z. ↑,
65', 🟨,
71', Huth E. ↓, Bannis N. ↑,
71', Zonneveld N. ↓, Pinto J. ↑,
75', Appiah A. ↓, Kasanwirjo K. ↑,
76', Butera E. ↓, Jetten L. ↑,
76', Vink S. ↓, van der Vaart D. ↑,
80', Marschalk M. ↓, Ranon Y. ↑,
85', Unuvar E. ↓, Messori L. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 and 19).

Jong Ajax has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Vitesse's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vitesse might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Jong Ajax won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Jong Ajax won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong Ajax
Dutch Eerste Divisie
24.11.25	Helmond Sport - Jong Ajax	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	Jong Ajax - FC Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
07.11.25	Jong Ajax - Dordrecht	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Cambuur - Jong Ajax	4:1 ✺
24.10.25	Jong Ajax - Emmen	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL
- Vitesse Arnhem
Dutch Eerste Divisie
25.11.25	Vitesse - Jong PSV	3:1 ✺
21.11.25	Dordrecht - Vitesse	1:1 ✺
07.11.25	Vitesse - Cambuur	0:4 ✺
31.10.25	VVV-Venlo - Vitesse	1:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
28.10.25	Katwijk - Vitesse	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
14.04.25	Jong Ajax - Vitesse	1:1
21.09.24	Vitesse - Jong Ajax	2:2

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