Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 33

Date: 4 April 2025, Friday

Location: De Geusselt (Maastricht)

Referee: Blank E. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+


	MVV Maastricht		Excelsior

	1	X	2
	5.25	5	1.5	Watch
	5	4.2	1.53
	5	4.75	1.53	Watch
	5.12	4.82	1.51	Watch
	5	4	1.57
	5.03	5.03	1.49	Watch
	5.5	4.75	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.13 ↑ (4.05)	4.65 ↑ (4.1)	1.52 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

MVV Maastricht
18.2%

Draw
20.1%

Excelsior
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

23%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.1%

22.8%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

MVV Maastricht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that MVV Maastricht's form might have worsened.

Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Excelsior's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for MVV Maastricht than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Excelsior, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

MVV Maastricht - Excelsior Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Excelsior will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Matthys R. (G) 32. Zeegers T. 4. Coomans W. 20. Francis S. 34. Schenk L. 31. Kleinen M. 5. Smeets B. 38. Klaasen R. 21. Esajas R. 9. Braken S. 11. Buifrahi R.	1. Raatsie C. (G) 2. Bronkhorst I. 5. Widell C. 3. Pierie K. 12. Zagre A. 23. Hatenboer C. 10. Duijvestijn L. 8. Tielemans M. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 33. Bergraaf J. 21. Donkor J.
Substitutes
6. El Basri N. 26. Hofland M. 17. Kassimi A. 1. Lambrix T. (G) 16. Librici A. 23. Op De Beeck J. (G) 14. Penders S. 24. Sangen M. 10. Slegers F. 25. Tehubijuluw D.	6. Blomme X. 11. Booth Z. 24. Eijgenraam J. 7. Fini S. 38. Kuiper P. (G) 17. Martens N. 9. Omorowa R. 29. van Duinen M. 4. Warmerdam D.
Coaches
Hermans E.	den Uil R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Braken S. ⚽, Smeets B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Hatenboer C. ↓, Blomme X. ↑,
68', Bergraaf J. ↓, Omorowa R. ↑,
68', Donkor J. ↓, Fini S. ↑,
68', Pierie K. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
75', Braken S. ↓, El Basri N. ↑,
80', Esajas R. ↓, Kassimi A. ↑,
80', Kleinen M. ↓, Slegers F. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Duijvestijn L. ⚽, Widell C. (A),
90', Fini S. ↓, Booth Z. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 2, van Duinen M. ⚽, Duijvestijn L. (A),
90+5', 🟨,
90+5', Kassimi A. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Maastricht won 1.

Maastricht has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Excelsior is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Maastricht could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Excelsior is a favorite.

There will not play in Excelsior: Hartjes L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Maastricht: Braken S. (Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Maastricht won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 15:23 (average 1.2:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Maastricht won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:7 (average 1.3:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MVV Maastricht
Dutch Eerste Divisie
28.03.25	MVV Maastricht - Emmen	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	De Graafschap - MVV Maastricht	0:0 ✺
14.03.25	MVV Maastricht - Jong AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
07.03.25	Helmond Sport - MVV Maastricht	4:0 ✺
01.03.25	Vitesse - MVV Maastricht	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTLLL
- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eerste Divisie
28.03.25	Excelsior - Jong Utrecht	3:0 ✺
14.03.25	FC Eindhoven - Excelsior	1:2 ✺
10.03.25	Excelsior - Den Bosch	3:1 ✺
07.03.25	De Graafschap - Excelsior	2:1 ✺
02.03.25	Excelsior - Roda	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
18.10.24	Excelsior - MVV Maastricht	3:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.10.22	Excelsior - MVV Maastricht	5:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
15.04.22	MVV Maastricht - Excelsior	1:1
10.12.21	Excelsior - MVV Maastricht	2:1
20.02.21	MVV Maastricht - Excelsior	1:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.01.21	MVV Maastricht - Excelsior	2:3 penalties
Dutch Eerste Divisie
16.10.20	Excelsior - MVV Maastricht	2:0

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