Match Info

A-League - Round 7

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Campbelltown Stadium (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
Philippines	SPOTV
South-korea	SPOTV
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	SPOTV
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 3
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV


	Macarthur FC		Melbourne Victory

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.6	2.5	Watch
	2.58	3.55	2.48	Watch
	2.66	3.72	2.58
	2.52	3.75	2.57	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.5
	2.63	3.64	2.63	Watch
	2.54	3.66	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.52)	3.62 ↑ (3.53)	2.54 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Macarthur FC
36.7%

Draw
26.1%

Melbourne Victory
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

26.2%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

25.4%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Macarthur FC have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	14.3%	21.4%

Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Macarthur will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Macarthur: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Macarthur FC will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Kurto F. (G) 25. Talbot C. 6. Uskok T. 5. Jurman M. 19. Politidis H. 22. Rose L. 26. Brattan L. (C) 13. Duran R. 10. Caceres A. 7. Grzan S. 24. Bosnjak D.	25. Duncan J. (G) 16. Inserra J. 21. Roderick (C) 15. Esposito S. 2. Davidson J. 64. Mata J. 27. D'Arrigo L. 8. Valadon J. 11. Clarismario 19. Reec J. 23. Jelacic K.
Substitutes
23. Deli F. 33. Ji Dong-Won 11. Oliveira B. 14. Popovic K. 1. Robinson A. (G) 28. Sawyer H. 18. Scott W.	29. Dragicevic O. 14. Grimaldi M. 22. Rawlins J. 3. Traore A. 17. Velupillay N. 9. Vergos N. 40. Warshawsky J. (G)
Coaches
Sterjovski M.	Diles A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Inserra J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bosnjak D. ↓, Oliveira B. ↑,
46', Brattan L. ↓, Ji Dong-Won ↑,
55', Ji Dong-Won 🟨,
56', Duran R. ↓, Sawyer H. ↑,
56', Jelacic K. ↓, Velupillay N. ↑,
56', Inserra J. ↓, Rawlins J. ↑,
66', Rose L. ↓, Deli F. ↑,
70', Grzan S. 🟨,
71', Mata J. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
79', Reec J. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
79', D'Arrigo L. ↓, Dragicevic O. ↑,
79', Jurman M. ↓, Popovic K. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Macarthur won 2.

In recent matches, Macarthur has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Melbourne Victory is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Macarthur may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Melbourne Victory has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Macarthur: Da Silva D. (Inactive) Ikonomidis C. (Injury) Oliveira H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Genreau D. (Red Card) Hamill B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Melbourne Victory: Inserra J. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Macarthur won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Macarthur won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.2:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Macarthur FC - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.72%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Macarthur FC
Australian A-League
30.11.25	Macarthur FC - Perth Glory	0:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
27.11.25	Macarthur FC - Wofoo Tai Po	2:1 ✺
Australian A-League
21.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Macarthur FC	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Sydney - Macarthur FC	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
06.11.25	Macarthur FC - Cong An Ha Noi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWWLW
- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
28.11.25	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne Victory	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	3:0 ✺
08.11.25	Melbourne Victory - Melbourne City	0:2 ✺
31.10.25	Perth Glory - Melbourne Victory	0:2 ✺
24.10.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
25.04.25	Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory	1:2
03.11.24	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	2:1
Australian Cup
29.09.24	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	0:1
Australian A-League
10.02.24	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	0:1
24.11.23	Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory	1:1
23.04.23	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	2:1
11.12.22	Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory	0:1

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