Match Info

A-League - Round 2

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday

Location: McDonald Jones Stadium (Newcastle)

Referee: Kersey A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Newcastle Jets		Melbourne Victory

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.9	2.2	Watch
	2.82	3.7	2.22	Watch
	2.91	3.88	2.31
	3.20	3.97	2.02	Watch
	2.9	3.76	2.19	Watch
	3.15	3.85	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↓ (3.13)	3.84 ↓ (3.88)	2.16 ↑ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle Jets
31.8%

Draw
24.5%

Melbourne Victory
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

23.8%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle Jets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Melbourne Victory has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 6.6% – 60%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Melbourne Victory (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Melbourne Victory (1.96) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Delianov J. (G) 5. Shaughnessy J. 17. Grozos K. (C) 15. Susnjar A. 39. Aquilina T. 19. Badolato A. 14. Burgess M. 23. Wilmering D. 28. Dobson W. 11. Gibson B. 43. Bertoncello X.	25. Duncan J. (G) 16. Inserra J. 15. Esposito S. 4. Jackson L. 2. Davidson J. (C) 34. Stella X. 8. Valadon J. 23. Jelacic K. 10. Genreau D. 11. Clarismario 9. Vergos N.
Substitutes
40. Baylis J. (G) 8. Bayliss L. 22. Bertolissio J. 45. Bracco C. 42. Cooper M. 25. Fryer O. 9. Rose L.	29. Dragicevic O. 14. Grimaldi M. 19. Machar Reec J. 64. Mata J. 22. Rawlins J. 3. Traore A. 40. Warshawsky J. (G)
Coaches
Milligan M.	Diles A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Gibson B. ⚽,
20', 2 - 0, Badolato A. ⚽,
25', 2 - 1, Genreau D. ⚽,
35', Davidson J. 🟨,
45+2', 3 - 1, Badolato A. ⚽, Dobson W. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Esposito S. ↓, Rawlins J. ↑,
46', Clarismario ↓, Rawlins J. ↑,
55', 3 - 2, Jelacic K. ⚽, Genreau D. (A),
56', Gibson B. ↓, Rose L. ↑,
57', Dobson W. ↓, Fryer O. ↑,
69', Stella X. ↓, Mata J. ↑,
70', Bertoncello X. ↓, Bracco C. ↑,
70', Aquilina T. ↓, Bertolissio J. ↑,
79', 4 - 2, Badolato A. ⚽,
84', Vergos N. ↓, Machar Reec J. ↑,
90+1', 5 - 2, Fryer O. ⚽, Wilmering D. (A),
90+2', Valadon J. ↓, Dragicevic O. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 2.

Melbourne Victory is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Hamill B. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 28:32. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.4:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle Jets
Australian A-League
19.10.25	Central Coast Mariners - Newcastle Jets	3:2 ✺
Australian Cup
04.10.25	Heidelberg United - Newcastle Jets	1:3 ET ✺
31.08.25	Avondale - Newcastle Jets	2:4 ✺
24.08.25	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	3:0 ✺
13.08.25	Cooks Hill United - Newcastle Jets	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWWWW
- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
18.10.25	Melbourne Victory - Auckland FC	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
24.09.25	Melbourne Victory - Perth Glory	3:0 ✺
08.08.25	Hume City - Melbourne Victory	0:5 ✺
Australian Cup
29.07.25	Olympic Kingsway - Melbourne Victory	4:3 ET ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Melbourne Victory - Wrexham	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
04.05.25	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	1:1
08.02.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	3:0
03.02.24	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	1:1
29.10.23	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	5:3
Australian Cup
17.07.23	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	3:2 penalties
Australian A-League
11.02.23	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	2:1
04.11.22	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	4:0

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