Match Info

A-League - Round 22

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	10 Drama, Channel 10, Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 5
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 6
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne Victory		Central Coast Mariners

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.75	6.5	Watch
	1.43	4.75	6.5
	1.39	4.95	6.9	Watch
	1.43	5.32	6.71
	1.43	5.11	6.67	Watch
	1.4	4.8	6
	1.45	4.98	6.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.49)	4.95 ↑ (4.22)	6.6 ↑ (5.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
66.6%

Draw
19.1%

Central Coast Mariners
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

22%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

23.7%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Central Coast Mariners has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Central Coast Mariners than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Central Coast will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne Victory: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Warshawsky J. (G) 22. Rawlins J. 15. Esposito S. 21. Roderick (C) 18. Lino F. 10. Genreau D. 8. Valadon J. 11. Clarismario 64. Mata J. 17. Velupillay N. 44. Nduka C.	30. Redmayne A. (C) 15. Roux S. 2. Donachie J. 26. Tapp B. 5. Mauragis L. 6. Eames H. 11. James Ngor S. 48. Donnell C. 8. McCalmont A. 72. Auglah A. 18. Blair N.
Substitutes
2. Davidson J. 25. Duncan J. (G) 14. Grimaldi M. 23. Jelacic K. 7. Piscopo R. 34. Stella X. 9. Vergos N.	37. Brandtman B. 23. Lavale O. 43. Nasso J. 3. Paull N. 40. Peraic-Cullen D. (G) 16. Steele H. 17. Taniguchi K.
Coaches
Diles A.	Moon W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, James Ngor S. ⚽,
29', Eames H. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Clarismario ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Velupillay N. ⚽, Roderick (A),
54', 2 - 1, Mata J. ⚽,
62', Blair N. ↓, Lavale O. ↑,
62', Donnell C. ↓, Brandtman B. ↑,
68', Nduka C. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
76', Eames H. ↓, Taniguchi K. ↑,
76', Roux S. ↓, Nasso J. ↑,
78', Velupillay N. ↓, Jelacic K. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 1, Vergos N. ⚽, Mata J. (A),
90+3', Lino F. ↓, Davidson J. ↑,
90+3', Mata J. ↓, Piscopo R. ↑,
90+4', 4 - 1, Davidson J. ⚽, Genreau D. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 1.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Central Coast may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Melbourne Victory is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: D'Arrigo L. (Leg Injury) Davidson J. (Inactive) Hamill B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Central Coast: Clark S. (Injury) Di Pizio M. (Injury) Sainsbury T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Theoharous C. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 34:26. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:10. (average 2.2:1).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne Victory: 13.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
15.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	4:1 ✺
07.03.26	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	2:2 ✺
27.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Brisbane Roar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTTWT
- Central Coast Mariners
Australian A-League
14.03.26	Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
04.03.26	Macarthur FC - Central Coast Mariners	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Newcastle Jets	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Western Sydney Wanderers	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Brisbane Roar - Central Coast Mariners	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.3 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
01.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	1:0
08.03.25	Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners	3:0
18.10.24	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	0:0
25.05.24	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	3:1 ET
25.02.24	Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners	0:1
13.01.24	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	1:1
02.12.23	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory	2:2

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