Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 4

Date: 9 November 2023, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Canal 11
Sweden	Viaplay


	Maccabi Haifa		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.6	1.85
	4.1	3.6	1.85
	4.35	3.75	1.85	Watch
	4.3	3.78	1.86
	4.3	3.78	1.86
	4.2	3.7	1.75
	4.45	3.72	1.82
	4.3	3.8	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.28 ↑ (3.41)	3.72 ↑ (3.43)	1.83 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maccabi Haifa
22.3%

Draw
25.7%

Villarreal
52%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

27.9%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

27.6%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maccabi Haifa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Maccabi Haifa's form might have worsened.

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Villarreal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maccabi Haifa than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Maccabi Haifa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Villarreal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.7%	5%	91.2%

Maccabi Haifa - Villarreal Predictions

Users Predictions: Villarreal will win (146 of 160 users predict this - 91.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.87% – 95.63%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Kaiuf S. (G) 2. Sundgren D. 30. Seck A. 44. Simic L. 27. Cornud P. 4. Mohamed A. 5. Show 11. Refaelov L. (C) 25. Khalaili A. 9. Pierrot F. 28. Hajaj I.	1. Reina P. (G) 26. Altimira A. 23. Mandi A. 2. Gabbia M. 18. Moreno A. 27. Akhomach I. 14. Trigueros M. (C) 4. Comesana S. 20. Terrats R. 9. Brereton Diaz B. 11. Sorloth A.
Substitutes
21. David D. 77. Fucs R. (G) 55. Gershon R. 3. Goldberg S. 26. Jaber M. 23. Kandil M. 18. Naor G. 16. Nitzan I. (G) 17. Podgoreanu S. 34. Shibli H.	3. Albiol R. 31. Alvarez I. (G) 16. Baena A. 6. Capoue E. 5. Cuenca J. 39. Espigares A. 13. Jorgensen F. (G) 17. Kiko 15. Morales J. L. 10. Parejo D. 30. Pascual J. 21. Pino Y.
Coaches
Dego M.	Rojo Martin J.

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - AEK Arena.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Maccabi Haifa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Villarreal is a favorite.

There will not play in Villarreal: Coquelin F. (Knee Injury) Foyth J. (Muscle Injury) Moreno G. (Rest) Pedraza A. (Injury) Suarez D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Maccabi Haifa: Haziza D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Menahem S. (Concussion) Shuranov E. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maccabi Haifa FC
UEFA Europa League
05.10.23	Maccabi Haifa - Panathinaikos	0:0 ✺
Israeli Ligat haAl
01.10.23	Maccabi Netanya - Maccabi Haifa	2:3 ✺
27.09.23	Maccabi Haifa - Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
21.09.23	Rennes - Maccabi Haifa	3:0 ✺
Israeli Ligat haAl
17.09.23	Maccabi Petah Tikva - Maccabi Haifa	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TWTLL
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
05.11.23	Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao	2:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.11.23	Chiclana - Villarreal	0:5 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
30.10.23	Granada - Villarreal	2:3 ✺
22.10.23	Villarreal - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
08.10.23	Villarreal - Las Palmas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWWTL

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