Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 8

Date: 30 September 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)

Referee: Lopez M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport LaLiga
Argentina	ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	K Sport 1
Malta	TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 1
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Tanzania	Azam Sports 3
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
World	Disney+, Prima+ app, Setanta Sports 2 Eurasia


	Villarreal		Las Palmas

	1	X	2
	1.48	5	5.75	Watch
	1.47	4.8	6
	1.45	5	6.5	Watch
	1.46	5	6.78
	1.43	5.06	7.17	Watch
	1.44	4.8	7
	1.49	5.14	6.74	Watch
	1.45	5	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.55)	4.98 ↑ (4.48)	6.56 ↑ (5.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: ESPN Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal
66%

Draw
19.3%

Las Palmas
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

21.3%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

20.7%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Las Palmas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.5%	1.9%	5.7%

Villarreal - Las Palmas Predictions

Users Predictions: Villarreal will win (49 of 53 users predict this - 92.45%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.34% – 99.56%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Conde D. (G) 17. Kiko Femenia 2. Costa L. 4. Bailly E. 23. Cardona S. 11. Akhomach I. 10. Parejo D. (C) 18. Gueye P. 6. Suarez D. 19. Pepe N. 15. Barry T.	13. Horkas D. (G) 4. Alex Suarez 28. Herzog J. 23. Munoz A. 11. Ramirez B. 24. Januzaj A. 29. Essugo D. 20. Rodriguez K. (C) 10. Moleiro A. 16. McBurnie O. 37. Silva F.
Substitutes
3. Albiol R. 16. Baena A. 12. Bernat J. 33. Cabanes P. 14. Comesana S. 36. Etta Eyong 1. Junior Reis (G) 26. Navarro P. 21. Pino Y. 20. Terrats R.	8. Campana J. 9. Cardona M. 14. Fuster M. 21. Gil I. 6. Gonzalez F. 5. Javier Munoz 30. Killane A. (G) 12. Loiodice E. 17. Mata J. 7. Pejino 22. Sinkgraven D. 18. Viti
Coaches
Marcelino G.	Carrion L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Alex Suarez 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Pepe N. ⚽, Barry T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Suarez D. ↓, Baena A. ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Silva F. ⚽, Januzaj A. (A),
50', Horkas D. 🟨,
51', Baena A. (Pen),
52', Silva F. 🟨,
62', Rodriguez K. ↓, Javier Munoz ↑,
62', McBurnie O. ↓, Fuster M. ↑,
77', Akhomach I. ↓, Cabanes P. ↑,
77', Gueye P. ↓, Comesana S. ↑,
77', Januzaj A. ↓, Loiodice E. ↑,
78', Ramirez B. ↓, Viti ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Barry T. ⚽, Baena A. (A),
86', Essugo D. ↓, Mata J. ↑,
87', Pepe N. ↓, Terrats R. ↑,
88', Cardona S. ↓, Bernat J. ↑,
90+7', 3 - 1, Baena A. ⚽, Comesana S. (A),

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Villarreal won 2.

Villarreal is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Las Palmas is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Villarreal is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Villarreal: Foyth J. (Knee Injury) Kambwala W. (Injury) Moreno G. (Muscle Injury) Pedraza A. (Injury) Perez A. (Injury)

There will not play in Las Palmas: Cillessen J. (Knee Injury) Marmol M. (Injury) Marvin (Injury) McKenna S. (Thigh Injury) Ramirez S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Villarreal: Pino Y. (Muscle Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Villarreal won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Villarreal won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
26.09.24	Espanyol - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
22.09.24	Villarreal - Barcelona	1:5 ✺
14.09.24	Mallorca - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
31.08.24	Valencia - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
26.08.24	Villarreal - Celta de Vigo	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWTW
- UD Las Palmas
Spanish LaLiga
26.09.24	Las Palmas - Betis	1:1 ✺
21.09.24	Osasuna - Las Palmas	2:1 ✺
15.09.24	Las Palmas - Athletic Bilbao	2:3 ✺
01.09.24	Deportivo Alavés - Las Palmas	2:0 ✺
29.08.24	Las Palmas - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
13.01.24	Las Palmas - Villarreal	3:0
08.10.23	Villarreal - Las Palmas	1:2
11.03.18	Las Palmas - Villarreal	0:2
22.10.17	Villarreal - Las Palmas	4:0
17.03.17	Las Palmas - Villarreal	1:0
23.10.16	Villarreal - Las Palmas	2:1
05.03.16	Villarreal - Las Palmas	0:1

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