Match Info

LaLiga - Round 7

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)

Referee: Sesma M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect, TVWan
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Disney+, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Villarreal		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.8	Watch
	2.12	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.09	3.36	4.05
	1.11	6.52	84.05	Watch
	2.01	3.39	4.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.23)	3.96 ↑ (3.42)	19.96 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal
63.8%

Draw
30.2%

Athletic Bilbao
6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Villarreal's performance.

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-22.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-21.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villarreal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+22.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	31.1%	15.6%

Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Villarreal will win (votes: 24 - 53.3%). Athletic will win (votes: 7 - 15.6%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 31.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 38.7% – 67.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Villarreal (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Athletic (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Villarreal (2.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Athletic (1.75) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Athletic (8.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Villarreal (votes: 11 - 55%). Athletic (votes: 4 - 20%). Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Junior (G) 15. Mourino S. 4. Marin R. 12. Veiga R. 23. Cardona S. (C) 11. Akhomach I. 16. Partey T. 18. Gueye P. 6. Solomon M. 19. Pepe N. 9. Mikautadze G.	1. Simon U. (G) 15. Lekue I. 3. Vivian D. 14. Laporte A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 18. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. (C) 8. Sancet O. 20. Gomez U. 11. Guruzeta G.
Substitutes
3. Altimira A. 17. Buchanan T. 14. Comesana S. 13. Conde D. (G) 20. Moleiro A. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 10. Parejo D. 24. Pedraza A. 25. Tenas A. (G) 27. Valou J.	12. Areso J. 19. Boiro A. 2. Gorosabel A. 25. Izeta 23. Navarro R. 27. Padilla A. (G) 4. Paredes A. 30. Rego A. 21. Sannadi M. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M.
Coaches
Marcelino G.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Akhomach I. ↓, Buchanan T. ↑,
57', Gomez U. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
67', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
67', Guruzeta G. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
72', Partey T. ↓, Parejo D. ↑,
72', Solomon M. ↓, Moleiro A. ↑,
72', Mikautadze G. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
75', Vesga M. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
75', Williams I. ↓, Sannadi M. ↑,
77', 1 - 0, Moleiro A. ⚽,
84', Buchanan T. 🟨,
90', Pepe N. ↓, Pedraza A. ↑,
90+2', Parejo D. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 1.

In recent matches, Villarreal has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Athletic is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Villarreal has had a series of away games.

Recently, Athletic has had a series of home games.

Villarreal could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Foyth J. (Muscle Injury) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury) Moreno G. (Hamstring Injury) Navarro P. (International duty) Perez A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Berenguer A. (Toe Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Williams N. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Villarreal: Comesana S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Villarreal won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
23.09.25	Sevilla - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Villarreal - Osasuna	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Celta de Vigo - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLLT
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
23.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Girona	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
06.04.25	Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao	0:0
08.12.24	Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal	2:0
14.04.24	Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal	1:1
05.11.23	Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao	2:3
13.05.23	Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao	5:1
30.10.22	Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal	1:0
09.04.22	Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao	1:1

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