Match Info

Carioca U20 - Taca Guanabara - Round 11

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Madureira U20		Sampaio Corrêa FE U20

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.85	4.55
	1.55	3.88	5.11
	1.59	3.8	4.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.64)	3.84 ↓ (3.88)	4.84 ↑ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madureira U20
57.6%

Draw
23.7%

Sampaio Corrêa FE U20
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

23.4%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

26%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madureira U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madureira U20 than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Madureira U20 - Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 1 - 0, ⚽,
58', 🟥,
85', 2 - 0, ⚽,
90', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 10 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca U20 (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

Recent form of Madureira U20 has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Sampaio Corrêa U20 has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Madureira U20 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Madureira U20 is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Madureira U20 won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madureira U20
Brazilian Carioca U20
04.10.25	Madureira U20 - Flamengo RJ U20	0:3 ✺
26.09.25	Boavista SC U20 - Madureira U20	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Madureira U20 - Botafogo RJ U20	4:4 ✺
13.09.25	Vasco da Gama U20 - Madureira U20	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Madureira U20 - Fluminense U20	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWTLL
- Sampaio Corrêa FE U20
Brazilian Carioca U20
04.10.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Flamengo RJ U20 - Sampaio Corrêa FE U20	4:0 ✺
20.09.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 - Bangu U20	3:1 ✺
12.09.25	Boavista SC U20 - Sampaio Corrêa FE U20	2:2 ✺
06.09.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 - Maricá U20	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Rio U20
12.04.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 - Madureira U20	0:1
Brazilian Carioca U20
29.06.24	Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 - Madureira U20	2:2

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