Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 9

Date: 28 October 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Mafra		Leiria

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.9	2.35
	2.9	2.9	2.3
	3.1	3	2.4
	3.34	3	2.5
	3.21	2.87	2.47	Watch
	2.9	3	2.3
	3.11	3.1	2.38	Watch
	3.1	3	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.6)	2.97 ↓ (3.11)	2.39 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
30%

Draw
31.2%

Leiria
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

29.7%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

29.2%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mafra's form might have worsened.

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	60%	30%

Mafra - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Mafra will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Leiria will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fraisl M. (G) 2. Texel P. 4. Passi B. 66. Capitao D. 5. Beni D. 3. Chriso 20. Maiga Y. 19. Iheanacho S. 9. Nibe A. 15. Guilherme (C) 90. Etim F.	1. Kieszek P. (C) 14. Ze Vitor 23. Ferreira T. 5. Rofino V. G. 52. Sylla H. 7. Ryan Guilherme 42. D'Avilla D. 18. Crystopher 3. Baro M. 99. dos Anjos D. 11. Silva J.
Substitutes
18. Fabinho 10. Fale M. 80. Goncalves V. 45. Kamara A. 17. Kolawole J. 22. Lemos F. (G) 7. Matos R. 6. Pereira P. 21. Precatado J.	27. Alisson Santos 25. Amado D. 6. Baixinho M. 29. Ferreira F. (G) 15. Kaka 30. Matheus Alessandro 9. Munoz J. 26. Resende J. 28. Singh S.
Coaches
Ferreira T.	Candido F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Ze Vitor 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Iheanacho S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ze Vitor ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
47', 2 - 0, Iheanacho S. ⚽,
52', 2 - 1, Crystopher ⚽,
60', D'Avilla D. 🟨,
66', Silva J. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
66', D'Avilla D. ↓, Singh S. ↑,
74', Iheanacho S. ↓, Fale M. ↑,
80', Sylla H. ↓, Baixinho M. ↑,
81', Crystopher ↓, Resende J. ↑,
85', dos Anjos D. (Pen),
86', Chriso ↓, Kolawole J. ↑,
87', Etim F. 🟨,
90+3', Nibe A. ↓, Kamara A. ↑,
90+4', Etim F. ↓, Pereira P. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 13).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Leiria could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Mafra have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Mafra won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.8:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Mafra won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0 (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
23.10.24	Porto B - Mafra	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.24	Oliveira Hospital - Mafra	1:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
06.10.24	Mafra - Alverca	1:1 ✺
30.09.24	Vizela - Mafra	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.24	Montijo - Mafra	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLTLW
- UD Leiria
Taça de Portugal
20.10.24	Leiria - Nacional	2:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
11.10.24	Leiria - Felgueiras	1:3 ✺
06.10.24	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0 ✺
29.09.24	Leiria - Marítimo	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.24	Camacha - Leiria	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
02.03.24	Leiria - Mafra	2:3
08.10.23	Mafra - Leiria	3:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
27.05.18	Leiria - Mafra	1:1
19.05.18	Mafra - Leiria	0:0

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