Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 34

Date: 15 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Mafra		Torreense

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.9	1.7
	3.6	3.5	1.78
	3.8	3.7	1.87
	3.88	3.91	1.85
	3.81	3.81	1.85	Watch
	3.6	3.5	1.85
	3.85	3.84	1.85	Watch
	3.8	3.7	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.83 ↑ (3.17)	3.73 ↑ (3.41)	1.83 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
24.2%

Draw
24.9%

Torreense
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

27.5%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

26.5%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mafra's form might have worsened.

Torreense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Torreense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torreense than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Torreense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Mafra - Torreense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Mafra will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Torreense will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Torreense: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Mafra (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Torreense (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Torreense (1.23) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2 - Torreense (4.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Mafra (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Torreense (votes: 9 - 81.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Ugboh M. (G) 2. Texel P. 29. Rossi R. 24. Camara M. 14. Alves K. 66. Capitao D. 80. Goncalves V. (C) 17. Kolawole J. 7. Matos R. 90. Etim F. 95. Rochez B.	12. Thiago (G) 5. Lomboto J. 28. Elie 2. Stopira (C) 22. Dani Bolt 30. Balanta J. A. 8. Leo Silva 23. Vazquez J. 11. Pozo M. 66. Gonzalez E. 27. Jean D.
Substitutes
60. Barros G. 5. Beni D. 3. Chriso 16. Djabi A. 12. Guilherme Christino (G) 79. Guilherme Silva 8. Lucas Gabriel 35. Monteiro V. 39. Souza A.	16. Ali Abdallah A. 90. Costa D. 24. Dacourt A. 39. Leandro Matheus (G) 4. Ne Lopes 72. Oliveira V. 6. Pinto R. 19. Talles Wander 17. Yaw M.
Coaches
Alves P.	Fernandes T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+3', 1 - 0, Goncalves V. ⚽, Capitao D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lomboto J. ↓, Costa D. ↑,
59', Texel P. ↓, Beni D. ↑,
59', Matos R. ↓, Monteiro V. ↑,
74', Kolawole J. ↓, Chriso ↑,
76', Stopira ↓, Pinto R. ↑,
76', Leo Silva ↓, Ali Abdallah A. ↑,
81', Jean D. 🟨,
85', Goncalves V. ↓, Lucas Gabriel ↑,
85', Rochez B. ↓, Souza A. ↑,
86', 2 - 0, Chriso ⚽,
88', 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 2.

Mafra has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Torreense is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Torreense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Mafra won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 2.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
09.05.25	Feirense - Mafra	2:1 ✺
04.05.25	Mafra - Leixões	1:2 ✺
30.04.25	Benfica B - Mafra	5:0 ✺
20.04.25	Marítimo - Mafra	2:0 ✺
14.04.25	Mafra - Penafiel	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLLW
- SCU Torreense
Portuguese Liga 2
11.05.25	Torreense - Leixões	3:2 ✺
05.05.25	Penafiel - Torreense	0:1 ✺
26.04.25	Torreense - Marítimo	2:2 ✺
19.04.25	Académico de Viseu - Torreense	1:2 ✺
13.04.25	Torreense - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
05.01.25	Torreense - Mafra	1:0
01.04.24	Mafra - Torreense	2:1
12.11.23	Torreense - Mafra	0:0
Portuguese League Cup
21.07.23	Torreense - Mafra	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
15.04.23	Mafra - Torreense	1:0
29.10.22	Torreense - Mafra	0:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
11.02.18	Mafra - Torreense	4:3

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