Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Penafiel		Torreense

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.82	3.15	2.45
	3.09	3.2	2.45
	3.01	3.31	2.33	Watch
	2.7	3	2.5
	2.69	3.21	2.59	Watch
	2.75	3.14	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↑ (2.77)	3.16 ↑ (3.04)	2.47 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
33.1%

Draw
29.4%

Torreense
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

30.7%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

29.9%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Torreense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torreense than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	28.6%	42.9%

Penafiel - Torreense Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Torreense will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Femenias J. (G) 22. Xico 5. Sanchez J. 33. Moreira C. 2. lano Imbene 36. Dani Molina 8. Reko (C) 88. Alves R. 20. Santos A. 95. Sery J. 37. Davo	1. Lucas Paes (G) 57. Danilo 93. Mohamed D. 2. Stopira (C) 23. Vazquez J. 65. Guilherme Liberato 4. Casas A. 10. Costinha 7. Jean D. 17. Drammeh M. 31. Seydi I.
Substitutes
19. Alcaina R. 75. Alloh T. 3. Gustavo Fernandes 61. Injai M. 4. Miguel J. 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 14. Pereira B. 9. Suker H. 34. Ze Leite	77. Afonso Peixoto 99. Arielson 56. Caio Amaral 22. David Bruno 27. Marticorena A. 15. Muguruza A. 13. Perez U. (G) 20. Pite 26. Simoes A.
Coaches
Aira J.	Martins V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Guilherme Liberato 🟨,
34', Drammeh M. 🟨,
34', Vazquez J. 🟨,
34', Guilherme Liberato 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Seydi I. ↓, Simoes A. ↑,
61', Reko ↓, Ze Leite ↑,
76', Costinha ↓, Pite ↑,
77', Simoes A. 🟨,
78', Simoes A. 🟨,
79', Femenias J. 🟨,
79', lano Imbene ↓, Pereira B. ↑,
79', Santos A. ↓, Alcaina R. ↑,
80', Sery J. 🟨,
85', Ze Leite 🟨,
86', Sery J. ↓, Suker H. ↑,
88', Drammeh M. ↓, Arielson ↑,
88', Jean D. ↓, David Bruno ↑,
90+6', 1 - 0, Pereira B. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 1.

Recent form of Penafiel has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Torreense has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Penafiel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Penafiel won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
12.12.25	Porto B - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
05.12.25	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Académico de Viseu - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Marítimo - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Penafiel - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWLLT
- SCU Torreense
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Casa Pia - Torreense	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
12.12.25	Torreense - Feirense	2:3 ✺
06.12.25	Marítimo - Torreense	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Torreense - Chaves	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Lusitânia - Torreense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
05.05.25	Penafiel - Torreense	0:1
22.12.24	Torreense - Penafiel	0:1
16.05.24	Penafiel - Torreense	1:1
15.01.24	Torreense - Penafiel	1:0
21.05.23	Torreense - Penafiel	5:1
14.01.23	Penafiel - Torreense	0:0

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