The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Malacateco 48.4%
Draw 29.3%
Deportivo Guastatoya 22.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
50.5%
27.8%
21.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
52.2%
28.7%
21%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Malacateco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)
Deportivo Guastatoya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Malacateco than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Guastatoya than the current prediction. (-1.3%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
0%
0%
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Preview
A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting the league leader (ranked 11th and 1st in the Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Playoffs - Semi - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Malacateco won 2.
Recent results have been tough for Malacateco (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Guastatoya is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
In this matchup, Malacateco is considered the favorite to take the win.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Malacateco has recorded 6 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:22 (averaging 0.9:1.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Malacateco against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with 12:5 goals (averaging 1.2:0.5 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
1
Guastatoya
12
8
1
3
19:13
6
25
11
Malacateco
12
3
3
6
12:19
-7
12
Last Results with these Odds
Deportivo Guastatoya - the odds 4.1 are the expected chance of winning is 21.69%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.