Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio David Cordón Hichos (Guastatoya)

Where to Watch on TV:


Guatemala	Azteca Guatemala


	Deportivo Guastatoya		Deportivo San Pedro

	1	X	2
	1.50	3.60	5.75
	1.5	3.5	5.9
	1.49	3.75	6.51
	1.54	3.76	6.5	Watch
	1.46	3.65	6.35
	1.43	3.82	6.76
	1.5	3.55	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.76)	3.66 ↑ (3.28)	6.22 ↑ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Guastatoya
60.8%

Draw
24.7%

Deportivo San Pedro
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

27.4%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

26.7%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Guastatoya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Guastatoya's performance.

Deportivo San Pedro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo San Pedro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Guastatoya than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Guastatoya that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo San Pedro than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo San Pedro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Deportivo Guastatoya - Deportivo San Pedro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Escobar R. (G) 7. Almanza J. 88. Alvarado C. 22. Avalos V. 33. Contreras A. 6. Estrada J. 32. Lemus B. 18. Lovato N. 77. Sanchez D. 10. Sequen M. 44. Yori E.	12. Cruz V. (G) 2. Alvarez D. . Barrientos A. . Calderon L. 7. Ceballos M. 9. Colon S. 5. de Leon B. 30. Folleco R. 15. Gomez R. . Martinez L. 19. Salguero O.
Substitutes
8. Aguilar Y. 23. Armas V. 19. Garrido S. 30. Hernandez B. (G) 17. Lon A. 4. Morales B. 26. Pineda W. 16. Ramirez C. 13. Tejeda A.	. Aldana B. 8. Chacon J. 22. Fuentes E. . Garcia E. . Mendez R. (G) 48. Moran Y. A. 11. Navarro A. 77. Navas J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
54', 0 - 1, Martinez L. ⚽,
89', 1 - 1, Avalos V. ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 1, Alvarado C. ⚽,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 3rd in the Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals) and 4th in the Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Guastatoya could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, Guastatoya enters as the overwhelming favorite.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Guastatoya	12	8	1	3	19:13	6	25
7	Deportivo San Pedro	12	5	3	4	14:12	2	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Guastatoya
Guatemala Liga Nacional
18.09.26	Comunicaciones - Deportivo Guastatoya	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo Guastatoya - Xelajú	2:1 ✺
09.09.26	Suchitepéquez - Deportivo Guastatoya	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Cobán Imperial - Deportivo Guastatoya	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Deportivo Guastatoya - Marquense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WWTWL
- Deportivo San Pedro
Guatemala Liga Nacional
20.09.26	Deportivo San Pedro - Cobán Imperial	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Marquense - Deportivo San Pedro	0:0 ✺
09.09.26	Deportivo San Pedro - Deportivo Mixco	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Municipal - Deportivo San Pedro	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Deportivo San Pedro - Antigua GFC	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 TTWTW

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