Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio David Cordón Hichos (Guastatoya)

Where to Watch on TV:


Guatemala	Azteca Guatemala


	Deportivo Guastatoya		Aurora

	1	X	2
	1.40	4.00	6.50
	1.43	3.8	6.3
	1.45	4.02	7.15
	1.48	3.99	6.9	Watch
	1.43	3.95	7.05
	1.49	4.28	6.85
	1.45	3.8	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.63)	3.98 ↑ (3.3)	6.68 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Guastatoya
63.3%

Draw
23%

Aurora
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

26.9%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59%

24.8%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Guastatoya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Guastatoya's performance.

Aurora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Guastatoya than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aurora than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Deportivo Guastatoya - Aurora Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Escobar R. (G) 7. Almanza J. 88. Alvarado C. 22. Avalos V. 33. Contreras A. 32. Lemus B. 17. Lon A. 18. Lovato N. 77. Sanchez D. 10. Sequen M. 44. Yori E.	22. Sanchez L. (G) 3. Acosta M. 57. Aguilar L. 17. Bajan D. 15. Garcia K. 18. Grajeda J. 5. Lemus J. 4. Monterroso C. 13. Morales H. 31. Urias V. 10. Vivas J.
Substitutes
8. Aguilar Y. 23. Armas V. 14. Estrada J. 19. Garrido S. 30. Hernandez B. (G) 4. Morales B. 26. Pineda W. 16. Ramirez C. 13. Tejeda A.	29. Del Cid H. 25. Diaz A. 27. Flores C. 67. Hernandez R. 11. Ibarguen E. 1. Navas D. (G) 7. Rodriguez J. 9. Ruiz D. 28. Ticuru J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Lon A. ⚽,
45+7', 1 - 1, Morales H. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
78', 2 - 1, Ramirez C. ⚽,

Preview

Guastatoya arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Aurora has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Aurora may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The betting markets point to Guastatoya as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Guastatoya in today's match, at odds of 1.44.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Guastatoya has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 7:5 (averaging 1.4:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Guastatoya against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 5:4 goals (averaging 2.5:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Guastatoya	12	8	1	3	19:13	6	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Guastatoya
Guatemala Liga Nacional
26.09.26	Deportivo Guastatoya - Deportivo San Pedro	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Comunicaciones - Deportivo Guastatoya	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo Guastatoya - Xelajú	2:1 ✺
09.09.26	Suchitepéquez - Deportivo Guastatoya	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Cobán Imperial - Deportivo Guastatoya	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.7 WWWTW
- Aurora FC
Guatemala Liga Nacional
27.09.26	Cobán Imperial - Aurora	3:2 ✺
19.09.26	Aurora - Marquense	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo Mixco - Aurora	3:2 ✺
10.09.26	Aurora - Municipal	1:2 ✺
04.09.26	Antigua GFC - Aurora	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
25.07.26	Aurora - Deportivo Guastatoya	0:1
19.03.26	Aurora - Deportivo Guastatoya	0:1
28.01.26	Deportivo Guastatoya - Aurora	2:2
28.09.25	Deportivo Guastatoya - Aurora	3:2
20.07.25	Aurora - Deportivo Guastatoya	1:0

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