What is the expert prediction for Mali vs Tunisia?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Mali vs Tunisia. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Mali vs Tunisia Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, January 03, 2026)

Match Info

Africa Cup of Nations - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Mohamed V (Casablanca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	AfroSport TV Africa, CANAL+ CAN, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, SuperSport PSL
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 4, beIN Sports MENA Max 4, beIN Sports MENA Max 4
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	BandSports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Cote-d-ivoire	NCI, RTI 3
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	ERT Sports 3
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Sportitalia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 3
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Mali	ORTM
Mauritius	MBC 11
Morocco	Al Aoula, Arryadia TNT
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Portugal	Sport TV7
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-africa	SuperSport PSL
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	Exxen
United-kingdom	4Seven, Channel 4
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Zambia	ZNBC 1


	Mali		Tunisia

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.7	3.6	Watch
	2.62	2.62	3.45	Watch
	2.58	2.71	3.45	Watch
	2.6	2.63	3.2
	2.65	2.77	3.55	Watch
	2.54	2.62	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.79)	2.68 ↓ (3.03)	3.46 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mali
36.8%

Draw
35.6%

Tunisia
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

31.3%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mali has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Tunisia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tunisia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	62.5%	29.2%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Mali will win (votes: 2 - 8.7%). Tunisia will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 65.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45.7% – 84.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Mali (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tunisia (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Mali (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Mali (votes: 2 - 25%). Tunisia (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Diarra D. (G) Young Africans 26. Coulibaly W. Sassuolo 5. Diaby A. Grasshoppers 25. Camara O. Angers 3. Dante A. Arouca 10. Bissouma Y. (C) Tottenham 23. Dieng A. Al Ahly 20. Sangare M. Lens 11. Coulibaly L. Lecce 8. Doumbia M. Al Ittihad 17. Sinayoko L. Auxerre	16. Dahmen A. (G) CS Sfaxien 20. Valery Y. Sheffield Wed 3. Talbi M. Lorient 6. Bronn D. Servette 2. Abdi A. Nice 10. Mejbri H. Burnley 17. Skhiri E. Eintracht Frankfurt 11. Gharbi I. Augsburg 13. Sassi F. (C) Al-Gharafa 15. Belhadj M. Lugano 9. Mastouri H. Dynamo Makhachkala
Substitutes
12. Camara M. Al-Sadd 14. Camara M. Laval 27. Diakite G. Lausanne 1. Diawara I. (G) Sirius 13. Doucoure F. Le Havre 19. Doumbia K. Brest 18. Doumbia M. Watford 15. Fofana M. New England Revolution 28. Gassama N. Baltika 7. Nene D. Fenerbahce 22. Samassa M. (G) Laval 24. Sissoko I. Bochum 9. Toure E. B. Besiktas 2. Traore H. Paris FC	7. Achouri E. FC Copenhagen 24. Arous A. Kasimpasa 14. Ben Ali M. Esperance Tunis 21. Ben Ouanes M. Kasimpasa 5. Ben Romdhane M. Al Ahly 22. Ben Said B. (G) Esperance Tunis 19. Chaouat F. Club Africain 1. Farhati N. (G) Stade Tunisien 18. Ghandri N. Akhmat Grozny 27. Jaziri S. Zamalek 12. Maaloul A. CS Sfaxien 4. Meriah Y. Esperance Tunis 8. Saad E. Augsburg 23. Sliti N. Shamal 26. Tounekti S. Celtic
Coaches
Saintfiet T.	Trabelsi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Doumbia M. 🟨,
7', Bronn D. 🟨,
12', Bronn D. ↓, Meriah Y. ↑,
17', Bissouma Y. 🟨,
23', Belhadj M. 🟨,
26', Coulibaly W. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Belhadj M. ↓, Achouri E. ↑,
57', Doumbia M. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
60', Mejbri H. 🟨,
70', Gharbi I. ↓, Saad E. ↑,
70', Mastouri H. ↓, Chaouat F. ↑,
85', Mejbri H. ↓, Ben Romdhane M. ↑,
85', Chaouat F. 🟨,
88', 0 - 1, Chaouat F. ⚽, Saad E. (A),
90+2', Ben Romdhane M. 🟨,
90+2', Sangare M. ↓, Toure E. B. ↑,
90+2', Dante A. ↓, Diakite G. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 1, Sinayoko L. (Penalty Awarded),
Extra Time (0 - 0)
103', Nene D. 🟨,
109', Meriah Y. 🟨,
110', Dieng A. ↓, Sissoko I. ↑,
113', Valery Y. ↓, Ben Ali M. ↑,
117', Coulibaly L. ↓, Traore H. ↑,
118', Sissoko I. 🟨,
Penalties (3 - 2)
1, Meriah Y. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Bissouma Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Abdi A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Sinayoko L. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Saad E. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Nene D. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Achouri E. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Diakite G. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Ben Romdhane M. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Toure E. B. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mali won 1.

Tunisia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mali may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Mali: Diarra G. (Ankle Injury) Haidara A. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Mali: Niakate S. (Injury) Traore H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Tunisia: Achouri E. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Mali won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.7:0.7).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mali
Africa Cup of Nations
29.12.25	Comoros - Mali	0:0 ✺
26.12.25	Morocco - Mali	1:1 ✺
22.12.25	Mali - Zambia	1:1 ✺
Friendly
18.11.25	Jordan - Mali	0:0 ✺
FIFA World Cup
12.10.25	Mali - Madagascar	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TTTTW
- Tunisia
Africa Cup of Nations
30.12.25	Tanzania - Tunisia	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Nigeria - Tunisia	3:2 ✺
23.12.25	Tunisia - Uganda	3:1 ✺
FIFA Arab Cup
07.12.25	Qatar - Tunisia	0:3 ✺
04.12.25	Palestine - Tunisia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Africa Cup of Nations
20.01.24	Tunisia - Mali	1:1
FIFA World Cup
29.03.22	Tunisia - Mali	0:0
25.03.22	Mali - Tunisia	0:1
Africa Cup of Nations
12.01.22	Tunisia - Mali	0:1
Friendly
15.06.21	Tunisia - Mali	1:0
Africa Cup of Nations
28.06.19	Tunisia - Mali	1:1
African Nations Championship
31.01.16	Tunisia - Mali	1:2

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Mali - Tunisia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide