Match Info

LaLiga - Round 38

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix (Palma de Mallorca)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mallorca		Real Oviedo

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.5	7	Watch
	1.46	4.4	6.75
	1.44	4.45	7.9	Watch
	1.46	4.65	7.8
	1.46	4.46	7.25	Watch
	1.44	4.33	6.5
	1.48	4.73	7.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.5)	4.5 ↑ (4.22)	7.27 ↑ (6.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mallorca
65.7%

Draw
21.2%

Real Oviedo
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

22.6%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

17.4%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mallorca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Real Oviedo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mallorca than the current prediction. (-16.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mallorca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Oviedo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Oviedo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.8%	9.4%	3.8%

Mallorca - Real Oviedo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Mallorca (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mallorca will win (46 of 51 users predict this - 90.2%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.04% – 98.36%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mallorca will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Mallorca (votes: 8 - 80%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roman L. (G) 23. Maffeo P. 24. Valjent M. (C) 5. Mascarell O. 3. Lato T. 12. Samu Costa 10. Darder S. 8. Morlanes M. 20. Torre P. 7. Muriqi V. 11. Asano T.	1. Moldovan H. (G) 22. Vidal N. 2. Bailly E. 12. Calvo D. 3. Alhassane R. 23. Fonseca N. 11. Colombatto S. 7. Chaira I. 8. Cazorla S. (C) 5. Reina A. 19. Fores A.
Substitutes
44. Calatayud M. 19. Llabres J. 27. Lopez D. 15. Luvumbo Z. 2. Morey Bauza M. 34. Olaizola J. 29. Orejuela L. 25. Pichu Cuellar (G) 9. Prats A. 21. Raillo A. 6. Sanchez A. 17. Virgili J.	24. Ahijado L. 17. Borbas T. 16. Carmo D. 4. Costas D. 13. Escandell A. (G) 15. Fernandez T. 10. Hassan H. 21. Ilic L. 25. Lopez J. 6. Sibo K.
Coaches
Demichelis M.	Almada G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', Cazorla S. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Torre P. ⚽, Maffeo P. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Fores A. ↓, Hassan H. ↑,
48', Morlanes M. 🟨,
54', Mascarell O. ↓, Raillo A. ↑,
58', Samu Costa 🟨,
61', Asano T. ↓, Virgili J. ↑,
61', Samu Costa ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
63', Cazorla S. ↓, Borbas T. ↑,
63', Colombatto S. ↓, Ilic L. ↑,
77', Alhassane R. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
77', Vidal N. ↓, Ahijado L. ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Morlanes M. ⚽,
85', Torre P. ↓, Prats A. ↑,
85', Lato T. ↓, Olaizola J. ↑,
88', 3 - 0, Muriqi V. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

Oviedo is Relegated to LaLiga2

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mallorca won 1.

Mallorca is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Oviedo is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Mallorca has had a series of away games.

In this match, Mallorca is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Mallorca: Joseph M. (Knee Injury) Kalumba J. (Injury) Kumbulla M. (Muscle Injury) Mojica J. (Red Card) Salas J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Oviedo: Dendoncker L. (Injury) Domingues B. (Knee Injury) Ejaria O. (Injury) Vinas F. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Mallorca won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 0.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mallorca won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 0.6:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RCD Mallorca
Spanish LaLiga
17.05.26	Levante - Mallorca	2:0 ✺
13.05.26	Getafe - Mallorca	3:1 ✺
10.05.26	Mallorca - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
01.05.26	Girona - Mallorca	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Deportivo Alavés - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLTWL
- Real Oviedo
Spanish LaLiga
17.05.26	Real Oviedo - Deportivo Alavés	0:1 ✺
14.05.26	Real Madrid - Real Oviedo	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Real Oviedo - Getafe	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Betis - Real Oviedo	3:0 ✺
26.04.26	Real Oviedo - Elche	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
05.12.25	Real Oviedo - Mallorca	0:0
Spanish LaLiga2
20.03.21	Mallorca - Real Oviedo	0:0
03.01.21	Real Oviedo - Mallorca	2:2
09.03.19	Mallorca - Real Oviedo	1:0
04.11.18	Real Oviedo - Mallorca	1:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
11.09.18	Mallorca - Real Oviedo	1:0
Spanish LaLiga2
05.02.17	Real Oviedo - Mallorca	2:1

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