Match Info

Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 5

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jocay (Manta)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Manta		Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.2	2.85	Watch
	2.25	3.15	3
	2.17	3.25	3.36
	2.43	3.23	2.86	Watch
	2.4	3.23	2.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.17)	3.21 ↓ (3.25)	3 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manta
40.1%

Draw
28.9%

Vinotinto
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

28%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

26.9%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manta than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Manta - Vinotinto Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Manta will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Vinotinto will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Manta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Zambrano F. (G) 23. Medina E. A. 16. Quintero D. 38. Ortiz M. 20. Chala J. 80. Valencia M. 24. Ramirez B. 85. Ospitaleche F. 10. Aleman C. 9. Valencia D. (C) 19. Alman J.	12. Santos M. (G) 23. Gomez L. 4. Aguirre A. 26. Hernandez E. 11. Mina A. 18. Ushina K. 6. Ona C. 8. Melo A. 7. Lugo J. 17. Monti R. 77. Ibarra R. (C)
Substitutes
5. Acosta M. 8. Almeida F. 4. Angulo L. 21. Bartora G. 7. Cabezas D. 50. Castillo A. 14. Mina J. 3. Penarrieta J. 99. Pico E. (G) 6. Torres Nazareno L. B. 77. Zambrano J.	5. Coba K. 2. Iriarte I. 30. Julio M. 15. Larotonda C. 10. Luna D. 40. Mera F. 25. Mitre L. (G) 36. Nardelli G. 22. Rodriguez E. 52. Rodriguez J.
Coaches
Carvajal Burgos J. E.	Schurrer G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', Quintero D. 🟨,
36', Aguirre A. 🟨,
38', Ospitaleche F. 🟨,
38', Ibarra R. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Alman J. ⚽, Aleman C. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
60', Ibarra R. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
60', Melo A. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
63', Ospitaleche F. ↓, Almeida F. ↑,
70', Valencia M. 🟨,
72', Monti R. 🟨,
73', 2 - 0, Aleman C. ⚽, Alman J. (A),
74', Gomez L. ↓, Nardelli G. ↑,
76', Valencia M. ↓, Torres Nazareno L. B. ↑,
83', Aleman C. ↓, Zambrano J. ↑,
84', Valencia D. ↓, Mina J. ↑,
87', Mina A. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
90+8', 2 - 1, Lugo J. (Pen),
90+9', 3 - 1, Almeida F. ⚽, Chala J. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manta won 1.

Manta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vinotinto has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Manta will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Manta won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Manta won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 1.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manta FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.11.25	Manta - Mushuc Runa	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Vinotinto - Manta	2:0 ✺
25.10.25	Mushuc Runa - Manta	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	Manta - Técnico Universitario	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Manta - Deportivo Macará	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLTWL
- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.11.25	Técnico Universitario - Vinotinto	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Vinotinto - Manta	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Vinotinto - Técnico Universitario	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Libertad Loja - Vinotinto	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.11.25	Vinotinto - Manta	2:0
20.09.25	Vinotinto - Manta	4:1
24.05.25	Manta - Vinotinto	2:2
Ecuadorian Serie B
08.09.24	Manta - Vinotinto	1:0
17.07.24	Vinotinto - Manta	6:2
18.06.24	Manta - Vinotinto	2:1
30.04.24	Vinotinto - Manta	2:1

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