Match Info

Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Mushuc Runa		Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.4	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.45	4.25
	1.76	3.75	4.51
	1.80	3.39	4.53	Watch
	1.77	3.51	4.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.66)	3.5 (3.5)	4.52 ↓ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
52.9%

Draw
26.6%

Vinotinto
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

26.2%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

25%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mushuc Runa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (G) 31. Mina G. 2. Bentaberry B. 29. Quintero D. (C) 26. Peralta K. 32. Orejuela C. 5. Davila E. 14. Tapiero S. 19. Gracia A. 17. Penilla C. 49. Dos Santos J.	25. Mitre L. (G) 4. Aguirre A. 2. Iriarte I. 26. Hernandez E. 36. Nardelli G. 23. Gomez L. 15. Larotonda C. 6. Ona C. 10. Luna D. 17. Monti R. 77. Ibarra R. (C)
Substitutes
40. Burbano R. 7. Castro S. 44. Chala Rosales W. J. 12. Collaguazo J. (G) 50. Cusme J. 10. Delgado B. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 42. Pabon W. (G) 55. Verges J. 8. Zambrano A.	13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 5. Coba K. 30. Julio M. 1. Lopez J. (G) 7. Lugo J. 8. Melo A. 40. Mera F. 52. Micolta C. 11. Mina A. 22. Rodriguez E. . Rodriguez J.
Coaches
Velez P.	Schurrer G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Luna D. ⚽, Gomez L. (A),
11', 1 - 1, Dos Santos J. (Pen),
15', Larotonda C. 🟨,
27', Bentaberry B. 🟥,
32', Nardelli G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Larotonda C. ↓, Ushina K. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Dos Santos J. ⚽, Gracia A. (A),
66', Gracia A. ↓, Chala Rosales W. J. ↑,
75', Dos Santos J. ↓, Burbano R. ↑,
75', Ona C. ↓, Julio M. ↑,
75', Nardelli G. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
75', Luna D. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
83', Gomez L. 🟨,
85', Mina G. 🟨,
88', Ibarra R. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
90', Orejuela C. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,

Preview

Mushuc Runa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vinotinto has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Mushuc Runa is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.09.25	El Nacional - Mushuc Runa	0:5 ✺
20.09.25	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Orense - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Mushuc Runa - Manta	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Deportivo Macará - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTLWL
- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
28.09.25	Libertad Loja - Vinotinto	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Vinotinto - Manta	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto	3:1 ✺
29.08.25	Vinotinto - El Nacional	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Vinotinto - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.07.25	Vinotinto - Mushuc Runa	1:1
14.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto	1:2

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